This state in the American West was one of the most contested in the 2020 presidential election – Joe Biden won 10,000 times against Donald Trump – and this year promises an equally close result. The Republican candidate is due to deliver a speech focused on the economy in Tucson, a university town about 100 kilometers from the Mexican border.
60 years of debates
Its Democratic rival it will also be on the other side of the country in North Carolina at the same time. The vice president is counting on the votes of African Americans and young people, reenergized by her candidacy, to win against the Republican billionaire in this Atlantic state. As with the previous two presidential elections, the 2024 election could be decided by a few thousand votes in certain strategic counties in six or seven pivotal states, due to the way the vote is played, with the election being played by indirect universal suffrage.
Therefore, it is to these states, spread across the country and including Arizona and North Carolina, that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will focus their campaign efforts and invest most of their war chest. The 50-year-old is particularly keen to capitalize on her Tuesday debate against Donald Trump, which she dominated according to most commentators. But can this showdown, watched by more than 67 million viewers, really make the difference?
Although these televised events have been campaign highlights for more than 60 years, their impact on voting often remains limited. With one notable exception: the June debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump that very much precipitated the Democratic president's withdrawal from the race — one of the biggest political upsets in modern history.
“Short Memory”
“Voters' memories are short,” Kyle Kondik, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, says in a note. The analyst assures that there is enough time between now and the November 5 election “for the impact of the debate – if any – to fade.” And according to polls, a huge majority of voters have already chosen their side for the vote. They lean equally Democratic and Republican, if these opinion polls are to be believed.