Remainers are increasingly less likely to vote to rejoin the EU, a surprising new poll has shown. Research by Redfield and Wilton Strateiges, carried out for thinktank UK in a Changing Europe, report a drop in support for the UK getting back into the bloc – even for those who voted Remain in 2016.
When answers from respondents who said they wouldn’t vote or don’t know how they would are removed, 56 percent said they would vote to rejoin, while 44 percent state they would vote to stay out of the EU.
This is a three-point swing in favour of staying out compared with October, and five points more than a study taken in August. Crucially, there is a three-point swing among those who voted Remain in 2016 in favour of staying out of the bloc.
Support for staying out has increased by as much as eight points among those who did not vote seven years ago, the think-tank reports.
The swing is reflected in several other polls. Omnisis/WeThink, which runs polls on the subject every week, recorded an average of around 60 percent in favour of re-joining in November, compared with 57-58 percent in more recent polls.
BMG research meanwhile found in their latest monthly poll that staying out was even more popular than re-joining, at 51 percent to 49 percent.
In UK In a Changing Europe’s study, respondents were still inclined to believe that immigration is higher, and that both the UK’s standing on the global stage and its economy has suffered as a result of Brexit.
Voters remain divided on how much Britain has gained control over its own affairs, meanwhile, with 34 percent saying the UK has more, 23 percent saying it is similar and 31 percent saying it is worse.
This means that voters’ opinions of the consequences of Brexit have not changed – but more would be more likely to vote in favour of staying out of the EU than in previous months.
The apparent contradiction is explained by further analysis, which reveals that the swing in favour of remaining outside of the EU is more prominent for voters who believe Brexit has not subtstantially impacted the British economy.
Among Remain voters in this category, there was a nine-point boost to those supporting staying out. Meanwhile the increase among Leave supporters and non-voters of this opinion are 11 and 15 points respectively.
While overall support for rejoining the EU remains the dominant view in the UK, it is far from clear cut.
An study in November by More In Common found that a total of 47 percent of voters would want another referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU, with 16 percent undecided.
The think-tank’s Luke Tryl said that young people were driving the demand for a new ballot. He told HuffPoUK: “What’s most interesting about our latest polling on Brexit is that the rejoin lead is driven almost entirely by those who couldn’t vote in 2016. It is clear that there is growing momentum to revisit the issue, with around half of the public wanting to see a referendum on rejoining in the next five years.
“Whether we ultimately rejoin in such circumstances will then ultimately be determined by whether those too young to vote in 2016 actually turn out in a future referendum.”