In August 2024, consumer prices rose by 1.9% year-on-year according to the provisional results of the consumer price index (CPI) published yesterday by INSEE. Inflation below 2%: a first in three years, which will still have to materialize for the French who, for their part, are still charging too high prices for this new school year.
It is good news revealed yesterday by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (HIMSELF): inflation in France falls below 2%, which has not happened in three years. “A year from now, according to the provisional estimate made at the end of the month, the consumer price index (CPI) would increase by +1.9% in August 2024, after +2.3% in July.
Read also:
REPORTING. Inflation: at the supermarket, “if prices fell, I didn't notice”
This drop in inflation could be explained by the very clear slowdown in energy prices: a year from now, electricity prices would slow down (mainly due to a base effect related to the increase in regulated electricity tariffs applied to 1).er August 2023) and those of petroleum products would decrease. In contrast, prices of services, especially accommodation and transport, should accelerate over a year. Those of food, manufactured products and tobacco would evolve over the course of a year at the same pace or almost at the same pace as the previous month,” INSEE writes in its note.
Consumer prices: +2.2% in August
“A year from now, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is expected to increase by 2.2% in August 2024, after +2.7% in July. Over a month, it would increase by + 0.6% after + 0.2% the previous month”, indicates INSEE. “Manufactured prices should rise over a month, driven by a rebound in clothing and footwear due to the end of summer sales. Food prices would rise, as would services, especially accommodation and transport. Instead, energy prices would decrease over a month, while tobacco prices would be stable,” explains the national statistician.
Before enjoying these figures, the French will undoubtedly wait a little to see the concrete effects on their purchases. Because for now they don't have the feeling that prices have fallen or very little.
Still high prices constrain the French
According to a recent study by consumer finance company CSA Research Cofidis79% of parents say they have seen price increases since the last school year (September 2023) for their children's expenses. A score that rises to 89% among parents of children between 11 and 17 and to 92% in households with three children.
The rise in prices is having an impact on the budget that the French allocate to the start of the school year, “decreasing and narrower”, according to a study by Bonial (Axel Springer) led by OpinionWay. “The average planned budget for this school year is 304 euros (-20 euros compared to 2023). This reduction is reflected in particular by a budget envelope dedicated to school supplies decreasing by €16 compared to 2023 (€129 in 2024 compared to €145 in 2023). The budget dedicated to sports equipment remains at 131 euros, and purchases of ready-to-wear have increased by 5 euros, with an average budget of 176 euros”, indicates the study, which also shows that the French are looking for solutions to minimize the back. costs to the school.
Read also:
INTERVIEW. Falling prices: 'I think we'll soon reach the end of deflation'
“While 33% of the French do not plan any expenditure for the start of the school year (-3 points compared to 2023), many turn to reusing products and sorting out cupboards to minimize costs. Thus, 12% plan to use previously purchased products, such as school supplies or sports equipment. Second hand is also favored by 17% of the French and some opt for more drastic choices, by considerably reducing expenses (6%) or by refusing to renew registrations for sports activities (5%)”, the study indicates.
An upward revision of the CPI also remains possible during the second estimate, expected on September 13. In May and June, INSEE revised its first estimate of inflation upwards by 0.1 points.