IThis appointment Michel Barnier at Matignon it was a hassle. There the composition of the government promises to be another. In particular to fulfill one of the perspectives outlined by the new prime minister: building a broad coalition from the right to… the left. Or a republican arch that should embody this mobilization that, once again, blocked the way to power for the RN in the last legislative elections. However, between drawing such plans on the comet and realizing them, there is more than one step to go. In other words, seeing left-wing figures enter an “open” government led by a conservative right-wing figure seems highly unlikely.
Certainly, a few figures who violate the ban could always take the opportunity to cling to a providential branch… But the forces of the NFP were clear: Michel Barnier will not escape a motion of censure. And this, from the opening of the parliamentary session, scheduled for 1er October.
If Michel Barnier intends to respond to the no-confidence motion, he will not be able to avoid investment in public services
Beyond this gratuitous caveat, it's the budget that should clarify the situation. And complete the return to earth. Bruno Le Maire, still head of Bercy, was clear: to avoid the public deficit getting out of control, there are still ten billion euros of savings to be made, just for 2024. And there is no reason to believe that Michel Barnier is not going this way. Indeed, if the right should enter the government – even if all summer it kept saying the opposite… – it is because it had some guarantees in this regard. Beyond security and immigration, controlling public spending is at the top of his priorities.
Under these conditions, the left has no interest in lifting a finger. Comfortable in the opposition, it will be able to focus on 2027. But even if the financial room for maneuver is thin, if Michel Barnier intends to respond to the distrust expressed at the polls, in the European elections as well as in the legislature, he will not be able to avoid investments in public services.
Still, if there's one common expectation on the left, right, center, and far right, it's this. An opportunity to cross divisions? Let's not dream. In many ways, if the next budget promises to be a moment of truth, the make-up of the government will be its first face. And by electing Michel Barnier, Emmanuel Macron did not move to the left. Change in continuity.