Economists know this: every gold rush is the result of anxiety. Whether international tensions are high, if economies are falling, if countries are increasing their debt, if reserve currencies are faltering, the temptation to exchange assets that have become questionable for hard cash becomes stronger and sometimes irresistible.
At the end of summer 2024, there is no shortage of reasons for the outbreak. War is raging in Ukraine and the Middle East. The return of inflation has left its mark. US key rates are falling. The dollar is collapsing. Even more decisive are the massive purchases of gold stocks by the central banks of emerging countries, and especially China, which thus seeks to diversify and “de-dollarize” its foreign reserves.
Wars, falling US interest rates, purchases by the Chinese central bank: there is no shortage of reasons for gold's current rally.
Viewed from this angle, gold fluctuations are a valuable indicator of geopolitical changes at work: owning quantities of the yellow metal is seen by these new players as a sign of their growth and an asset for greater autonomy on the world stage.
But if much of the stock sleeps in the basements of the big central banks, individuals are not left out. And the French, historically proven fact, have always had a weakness for gold, embodied by these bars and these “Napoleons” hidden under piles of sheets or, more cautiously, placed in the safe. Five million of our compatriots own them, and this appetite continues unabated, while the savings rate, boosted by the Covid-19 pandemic, remains very high.
Whether it glitters in the form of jewelry, coins, bars and bullion, or is held in the form of index funds or shares of mining companies, gold inspires a confidence that is discouraged by the acrobatics of speculation. Until 1971, the international financial system was based on a dollar convertible into gold. Distant memory.