Can this first debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump swing the tide in favor of one candidate or the other? Analysis by Nicole Bacharan, historian, political scientist and specialist in the United States.
First debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump: Is this matchup between the vice president and the former president already decisive?
Yes, it is already decisive because it will be the most watched event of the campaign and will not, a priori, be another face-to-face event. But there's a much bigger stake: It's the first time the American electorate will see Kamala Harris face the political debate, even if her personality and her program are not so well known to the general public. This debate will therefore be closely watched, especially since early voting by Americans began on September 6 and will gradually spread to the various states.
A former attorney general facing a former president who wants to escape justice and plays the victim… What will Kamala Harris' strategy be against Donald Trump?
What Americans are primarily interested in is the economy. Kamala Harris will defend Biden's record and will have to talk about jobs, wages, the deficit, inflation, taxes and the future without giving in to Trump, who leads her by eight points in economic polls. He expects her to get bogged down in these issues to counter it while she watches for times when he will appear confused in his statements, as he has been several times recently on dates. Otherwise, Kamala Harris chose to ignore Donald Trump regarding his racist and misogynistic attitudes, and it worked out well. This really destabilized him and deprived him of angles of attack, as the Democratic camp chose to treat his excesses as “childish” or “disinterested”. Legally, it will be complicated. With his armies of lawyers, Trump has put himself above the law today. I think she will instead insist on the storming of the Capitol by her supporters and the questioning of the election results, because that is most dangerous to the future of American democracy. There, she will no doubt use her experience as a prosecutor to ask him the question that will infuriate him. But Kamala Harris's very strong point and Trump's very weak point is abortion. The question is gaining more and more space in public opinion as the reality of living with these bans and all the dramatic problems they generate for women is revealed.
Vladimir Putin announced his support for the Democratic candidate. A gift to Trump before this debate?
He said this as US intelligence agencies again denounce Russian interference in the Trump campaign. This pseudo-support actually serves the latter. It allows him to say that Putin chooses Kamala Harris because she is weak on Russia while he is strong on Moscow.
What do viewers expect from this debate, what will they judge?
He is waiting for a boxing match, a show and especially to see which one will be destabilized by the other. After that, a priori, everyone waits to be confirmed in their opinion and choice. Kamala Harris will, however, be judged more on her talent and proposals than Donald Trump, whose attitude, rudeness and slip-ups we know have no influence on the electorate and even delight them. But there are also these famous undecideds who are waiting for this debate to be decided, who may also be potential abstentions, who absolutely need to be persuaded, or that small portion of Republicans who no longer support Trump.
2% of registered voters have decided on Biden's victory in 2020. Which voters will the candidates target to make the difference?
In the famous key states, it will be decided by 10,000 or 20,000 votes. Therefore, we must steer the undecided to one side or the other. It is currently 48/48. Therefore, both will particularly want to speak to rural areas, to workers and their families who are victims of globalization and deindustrialization. All these circles that Democrats have been unable to speak to for many years, getting lost in identity issues that do not affect most people and especially people of modest means. There, two visions of America will collide. A dark vision, campaigning on the decline of the country that Donald Trump presents as despised by the world and in full industrial collapse to promote a return to the past, individualism, with less federal powers, less taxes, but a stronger leader. And the vision of Kamala Harris, focused on a positive, optimistic, brighter and more feminist vision of an America that maintains the American dream, where everything is possible for everyone and where the government must act in favor of the population and not certain privileged classes. .
So will Kamala Harris have to be popular against a populist?
Absolute. This is a fundamental problem because Trump knows how to talk to them.