The Tories are heading for less than 100 seats for the first time in the 346-year history after a new poll revealed that the coalition of voters who gave the party an 80-seat majority in 2019 has collapsed.
Rishi Sunak is facing more gloom in the latest weekly tracker poll by Techne UK for the Daily Express despite seeing his party’s share go up one point to 23%.
According to the survey of 1,641 UK voters Labour still has a 21 point lead over the Conservatives with their vote also up one to 44%.
But the biggest concern for the Prime Minister is that the number of Conservative voters from 2019 still backing his party has hit a new low of just 40% with 18% gone to Reform, 15% to Labour, 12% saying they will not vote and 10% uncertain.
Overall six in 10 voters from 2019 brought together by Boris Johnson have abandoned the party under Sunak.
Just two weeks ago 44% of 2019 Tory voters still backed the party but in a week where two ministers – James Heappey and Robert Halfon – have quit the party has lost a further 4% of its previous supporters.
In one piece of good news for Mr Sunak, Reform UK’s vote went down one point to 12% while the Lib Dems stayed the same on 10% and the Greens also dropped a point to 5%.
If this were the result of a general election, the prediction website Electoral Calculus predicts that the Conservatives would be left with 82 seats and Labour would have a massive majority of 304.
The polling comes as MPs head home for the Easter recess for a break but are set to face crucial local and Mayoral elections on May 2.
Tory backbenchers are contemplating a bid to oust the Prime Minister as leader if the local elections are, as expected, a bloodbath for the party.
Techne UK chief executive, Michela Morizzo said: “Every week remains a very difficult political week for Rishi Sunak and his Conservative Government.
“This week we saw the Government lost two ministers, and as the country prepares for the Easter Bank Holiday long weekend our regular tracker poll presents a very mixed picture.
“Both Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party and the Conservatives grow 1 point in national vote share – Labour up to 44% with the Conservatives up to 23%. In so doing the major parties effectively cancel one another out, whilst the Labour lead remains dominant at an unchanged 21 points.
“From their 13 point high last week Reform U.K. drops back 1 point, down to 12% of national vote share and this is the case also for the Greens who also drop one point to a 5% national share.
“Such a mixed political picture is not unusual when the electorate is looking forward to a long holiday weekend: people need some rest and are less interested in politics during holidays. Clearly next week the political debate will further resume and we must wait to see what happens then.”
The survey also underlines a deep apathy with the electorate showing that 25% of those asked will not vote at the next election. It fuels concerns that the general election later this year could have a record low turnout.
Among those who have decided Labour continues to lead in every age, education, social and wealth category.
The poll is further proof that the Budget at the start of March has had no impact on voting intentions.