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Nuclear threat to UK is ‘greater than ever’ from ‘cornered rat’ Vladimir Putin

Ukrainian soldiers of 3rd Assault Brigade are seen in Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast

It is the second anniversary of the Ukraine war (Image: Anadolu via Getty Images)

The threat of a nuclear missile attack on the UK is “greater than ever” warns an expert.

Professor Matt Qvortrup, an expert on global politics and relations from Coventry University, says that “cornered rat” Vladimir Putin could target Britain first during a wider World War 3 scenario.

Prof Qvortrup told the Mirror: “The situation is not as rosy as we’d like it to be and especially not here because we would be a target, I’m afraid.

“I remember the time when you would wake up in a cold sweat in the ’80s because you thought we’re going to be nuked by the Russians. I think we are in a position which is as dangerous, certainly for Europe, as we were back then.”

All this follows news that the MoD (Ministry of Defence) confirmed an “anomaly occurred” during a Trident exercise early in the year. This happened on January 30, inside the nuclear-powered submarine HMS Vanguard. A source said that the dummy missile left the vessel “but it just went plop, right next to them”.

Prof Anthony Glees, a security and intelligence expert, said Putin is “laughing at us right now”. He also mentioned that the situation is “Terribly embarrassing at best, devastating to our national security at worst. The top brass in the Navy have got a lot of explaining to do.

READ MORE: Alexei Navalny’s widow calls Putin ‘Satan’ as opposition figure’s body eventually released

But Prof Qvortrup thinks the issue has been blown out of proportion. He says it’s not right to think of Trident as useless like something from Dad’s Army.

However, he does believe the UK’s nuclear weapons aren’t strong enough against Russia. He explained: “What is more fundamental is the kind of missiles we have on Trident and those missiles – ballistic missiles – aren’t the most sophisticated type – they can be shot down from the ground. Not that I’m saying it’s easy. You can compare them to cruise missiles – which Russia has and the Americans have – that are literally flying by themselves…but we don’t have those.”

He added that when Trident was updated, it should have been done better, but that wasn’t possible back then. He argued: “When we upgraded Trident, we should have upgraded properly, but at the time that would have been impossible to do. My argument back then, if we have to have nuclear weapons, at least have proper ones. At the moment we have nuclear weapons that aren’t a credible threat to what the Russians have.”

“We’ve got the gloves on, we look like fighters – but we’re pretending to be fighters. I’m not saying Putin is going to do it, but there is a danger that he might do this and I think that that danger is greater, personally, than almost ever before. In Britain, we’ve been very on the front foot in Ukraine. They’re [Russia] not going to nuke the Poles, somebody who is close by because the wind is going to blow radioactive dust in their face. We would be one of the first targets.”

Prof Qvortrup said: “There are roughly 20,000 nuclear warheads in the world, and about six or seven thousand are Russian. The Americans have a handful, and the Chinese…but the Russians have the majority of all nuclear weapons in the world, and that should make us very afraid. When in the corner, the rat jumps up and bites you in the neck.”

RS-24 Yars, a Russian MIRV-equipped thermonuclear armed intercontinental ballistic missile

Vladimir Putin could target the UK (Image: SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

He told the story that Putin himself is said to have shared about when he was a young boy and trapped a rat in his parents’ basement, poking it with a stick. “The rat was totally panicked and jumped up and bit him in the neck,” he added.

“When cornered, you do irrational things,” he explained. “Putin himself has told that story and I think to a degree Putin is the rat and is someone who when cornered will do things not necessarily rational and that is the greatest danger. If the rat is in the corner with nuclear weapons we should be not just afraid but very afraid.

“I don’t think the risk is imminent, I don’t think the risk is high. But we shouldn’t rule it out… Trident will have to be upgraded in a completely different way if it were to be a deterrent. We rely entirely on the American deterrent.

“I think the Russians wouldn’t see much of a deterrent from western Europe. And with a Trump presidency, where we wouldn’t be able to count on American support… the scenario is Trump pulls out of Ukraine, the Europeans will have to foot the bill and Putin says ‘if you do this we are going to nuke you’. I really don’t like saying this, nuclear war is not inevitable.”

Prof Qvortrup thinks things would be “very, very different” if former US President Bill Clinton and ex-UK PM John Major hadn’t made Ukraine give up its nuclear weapons 30 years ago.

He explained: “Ukraine is the only country in the world that officially had nuclear weapons and gave them up,” and “The Ukrainians had nuclear weapons in 1994 and gave them up as part of a deal called Partnership for Peace and the Americans and the Brits said ‘if anything happens we’ll come and help you’.

“Nuclear weapons are a terrible thing in every sense of the word, but they are the sort of thing where you think twice about going to war. That deterrent would have prevented the war in Ukraine. We don’t have a credible nuclear deterrent to the Russians.”

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky seen addressing the world's media

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky (Image: POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Prof Qvortrup has suggested that the conflict in Ukraine could end within the next 18 months to two years if a peace deal or ceasefire is agreed upon. This would likely involve Kyiv surrendering control of Donbas or Crimea. “That freezes the status quo. The Russians had that area beforehand and they will continue to have that,” he explained.

He also mentioned that Ukraine could continue to exploit Russian weaknesses on the ground. “If Ukraine is able to get the weapons then they’ll probably be able to have a push – if Ukrainians can just about keep the situation as it is, they are going to be okay,” he said.

Interestingly, Prof Qvortrup pointed out that Russia’s naval capabilities are not very strong. “The most interesting development, the Russians are not very good at sea. They have never really had a navy to speak of because Russians have mainly had to go through the Baltic, so past Denmark and Sweden and so on, or they have to go through the Arctic.

“So the Russians have only really had the Black Sea and Vladivostok, which is too far away.”

Putin gestures while taking part in the wreath laying ceremony at the Unknown Soldier Tomb

Putin’s mental state is of concern (Image: Getty Images)

He added that Ukraine has been successful in causing damage to the Russian forces, allowing them to export some of their grain. “The Ukrainians have been able to inflict damages on them, which means they can get some of their grain out. That is a thing that I have not foreseen. They have been struggling on the battlefield, land war-wise, but…that’s obviously a thing that can make the Russians look very vulnerable.”

When asked if a total defeat for Putin is impossible, Prof Qvortrup responded: “I don’t think it’s completely impossible. I think maybe if one were to look at history then Finland were invaded by Russia in 1941.

“A young country established in 1917 and the Russians weren’t backed like they had been with Lithuania and Estonia. It wasn’t as if the Finns beat the Russians, but they were able to get back to the position they were in before the war.”

John Major and Bill Clinton

US President Bill Clinton and British Prime Minister John Major (Image: AFP via Getty Images)

“I think Ukrainians are able to do that and the difference now is things will start to bite in Russia. The more the economy in Russia is turned into a war economy, the more there will be people starting to drag their feet and Putin will have to start to look over his shoulders.”

“And even dictatorships like Russia is now, require some level of legitimacy, they need the money. If they don’t have access to grain and they can’t just rely on North Korean weapons, and the Chinese aren’t going to write a blank cheque, they can’t afford it. Remember Russia invaded Afghanistan back in the day and they lost that war.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin threatens the West with World War 3 (Image: Getty Images)

“Losing wars to a very committed population is not unheard of. You need the military equipment and you need skilled soldiers and so on, but you also need to have that element of fighting spirit.

“Finland was able to beat Russia because of that, that element of ballsiness about them, which the Ukrainians still have, to a degree.”

Prof Qvortrup, while not overly concerned about reports of Putin’s deteriorating health, expressed more worry about his mental state, especially as Russia struggles to secure a victory. He shared a story from Putin’s student days when he reportedly attacked a stranger on a train for mocking his height.

“When provoked he is someone who hits out, who lashes out,” the expert explained, adding that Putin’s KGB superiors didn’t see him fit for fieldwork due to this.

“He would have known he wouldn’t qualify for a spy if he just hits people and so on, but he has got this romantic idea of a spy and he used to read the Russian equivalent of James Bond novels. He came to the KGB when he was 10 years old and said he wanted to be a spy, and how do I do it. They said get a law degree, we need people who can think.”

“But he still likes to be the sort of He-Man and he’s got a chip on his shoulder about that and about his height. Psychologists say a psychopath is someone who doesn’t have a conscience, and he very much is in that mould.”

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