Pollster John Curtice predicts ‘trouble’ for Labour within months of getting keys to No10

A renowned political scientist predicts that Labour will be “in trouble” within a year and a half of forming the next Government if they win the general election.

Sir Keir Starmer is widely predicted to be entering No10 following the next general election as the Conservative party continues to languish in polls. But Professor Sir John Curtice said within 18 months they will be struggling as they haven’t “won the hearts and minds of the country.”

The polling expert, 70, admitted that Labour’s current 20-point lead is strong – but said they will inherit many of the issues currently making life difficult for the Conservative party.

He said that while Sir Keir has managed to convince people that he would be a viable option for Prime Minister, the public lack “enthusiasm” for him.

He added to the Daily Telegraph: “Keir Starmer hasn’t won the hearts and minds of the country. He has convinced people [Labour] are reasonably moderate and that they can conceive of him as prime minister – that he won’t upset the applecart. But there’s no enthusiasm and that’s potentially a problem.”

Prof Sir John said that the “Tories are in trouble now, but you can also see how after 18 months of a Labour government, assuming the Tories don’t engage in fratricidal warfare, the Labour Party could find itself in a pretty difficult position as well.”

Sir Keir could find himself only staying in power for one term if the Conservative party manages to “avoid imploding” in the meantime, the expert said.

It follows a double by-election victory for Labour – but one which hints that many voters losing faith in the Conservative Party have not found it in Sir Keir, but instead are turning elsewhere.

Reform UK secured an unexpectedly high number of votes, reaching 13 percent in Wellingborough and 10.4 percent in Kingswood.

Analysts have highlighted that for every voter who supported the Conservative Party in 2019 but have now switched to Labour, another has switched to Richard Tice’s rising party.

Mr Tice said the result in Kingswood shows it is now a “significant force in British politics”.

The Conservative Party has now lost more by-elections during a single parliament than any one previous since the 1960s.

Sir Keir Starmer said the results of the by-elections show the public “want change”.

“These are fantastic results in Kingswood and Wellingborough that show people want change and are ready to put their faith in a changed Labour Party to deliver it,” he said.

Former cabinet minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg said the Conservatives needed to focus on appealing to voters who had turned to Reform, adding there was “a lot of common ground” between the two parties.

He said “by-elections don’t change” that and support for Mr Sunak remains “solid”.

Sir John said the issue of Brexit was splitting the strength of the 2019 Conservative election.

“Virtually everybody who votes for Reform is a Brexiteer, so there’s a risk of making the fracturing of that crucial Leave coalition even worse,” he said.

Express.co.uk has contacted the Labour Party for comment.

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