The latest polls put Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, in the lead, notably in three of the seven key states needed to win the Nov. 5 election. Proof that Joe Biden's withdrawal has profoundly changed the dynamics of the race for the White House.
If there was still any doubt that Kamala Harris has reshuffled the presidential campaign books, the latest polls have dispelled it. Conformable most recently reported by ABC Newsthe vice president of the United States is now ahead of Donald Trump with 45.9% of voting intentions compared to 43.5% for her opponent, marking a significant lead of 2.4 points.
However, the future looked bleak for the Democrats. Joe Biden's unpopularity, exacerbated by concerns about his health, had left the presidential race in a state of stagnation, if not decline. Biden and Trump were then neck and neck. A few days before the announcement of the democrat's withdrawal in favor of his vice president, Trump was credited with 43.5% of voting intentions compared to 40.2% for the incumbent, a gap of 3.3 points that did not bode well.
Leading in three of seven key states
Kamala Harris' rise in the polls changes the situation. Not only is he outscoring Trump nationally, but he's ahead in three key Midwest states: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. In these swing states, Kamala Harris receives 50% of the vote intentions compared to 46% for Trump, according to a New York Times and Siena College survey published on August 10.
His recent travels with running mate Tim Walz have paid off. In Pennsylvania, where Biden defeated Trump in 2020, the Democratic candidate gained ten popularity points in a month. This positive dynamic is reinforced by favorable perceptions: 65% of respondents consider her intelligent, 52% consider her honest, and she is ten points ahead of Trump in terms of overall popularity.
Abortion, a hot topic in Arizona and Wisconsin
If the election were held today, Kamala Harris would win these three states, and with them 44 electoral votes, or 16% of the total needed to win the presidential election. That's no small feat, especially when you remember that Joe Biden trailed by seven points in Michigan, three in Pennsylvania and two in Wisconsin.
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But it is still too early to declare victory. The New York Times poll found that 60 percent of voters believe Trump has a clear vision for the country, compared to 53 percent for Harris. The former president also maintains the lead on confidence in the economy and immigration. However, Kamala Harris leads him by 24 points on the issue of abortion, a crucial issue in Arizona and Wisconsin that could swing the female electorate. The race for the White House is therefore far from over.