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He Joe Biden's Horrible Debate He has left his party, his country and half the world in suspense. The president has appeared hesitant, scattered and confused, leading to discussions about his age and health. The editors of The New York Times He asked me to stop the race, but what does the data say about his chances of winning?

For Metaculus Platform PredictorsBiden’s chances of winning the November election have collapsed. Where a week ago he had a 47% chance – almost the same as his rival Donald Trump – they now give him barely 20%.

Biden’s weakness has catapulted Trump, who now has a 65% chance of returning to the White House. The Republican has never been more favored.

But Biden’s crisis also opens the door for other Democratic candidates. According to Metaculus, Kamala Harris is currently the leading alternative (with a 10% chance of becoming president), followed by Gavin Newsom (3%) and Gretchen Whitmer (3%). Harris’ chances are even higher on the prediction market Polymarketwhere they reach 15%, surpassing Biden himself (12%).

Biden also drops in the polls

In the latest research by The New York Times, Trump’s lead over Biden has widened to six points, double what it was the week before the debate. The Republican leads 49% to 43% in voter intent, the largest advantage he’s had since the Times began tracking the data in 2015.

And while there are few polls after the debate, Trump's progress is already visible in the average he compiles Real clear politicsThere the Republican outranks Biden by three points:

You could argue that Democrats would do just as well (or worse) with a candidate other than Biden, but the available data suggests otherwise. In the Times poll, 74% of voters say Biden is “too old.” Worse, nearly half of Democrats and 72% of independents say Biden should resign.

The other bad data on Biden is the so-called generic polls. They are the ones that ask about a hypothetical vote between a Republican candidate and another Democrat, without naming them. In that question, Republicans see their lead reduced to 1.5 points, instead of the three that Trump has over Biden.

For the Democratic Party, it is obviously a very risky move to replace Biden and rush to launch a new candidate. If they consider it, or if they do end up doing it, it will not be because it seems like a great plan, but because they feel the numbers leave them no other choice.

⚽ Other Predictions

I remind you that we continue to update our predictions for the European Championship every day (in English And Spanish) and for the Copa America (in English And Spanish).

This Sunday we will also publish a screening for the second round of the French electionsusing the results of the first and what the polls say.

This item is a shipment from the newsletter by Kiko Llaneras, a newsletter for EL PAÍS subscribers with data and explanations about current events: Register here.