COVID has been haunting humanity for four and a half yearsand experts agree that there is no sign of it going away. So while we would all like to forget about it, we must remain vigilant to protect our health. Here is a quick guide to the latest information on COVID rates, treatments, and future vaccines.
The incidence rate of COVID is very high
The exact number of cases is no longer tracked, but current indicators show that COVID infections in the U.S. are widespread. In the week ending Aug. 10, nearly one in five COVID tests reported to health departments was positive, and one in 40 people who visited an emergency room were diagnosed with COVID, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Nearly 2 percent of all deaths reported that week were due to the disease.
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Wastewater analysis — one of our best tools for understanding what’s happening with COVID right now. These studies measure viral RNA that’s leaking into public sewage systems, a reportable metric that’s not skewed by changes in testing methods.
And the latest data show that concentrations of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID, in these samples are “pretty high — in fact, they’re currently the highest we’ve seen for a summer surge in the last few years,” says Marlene Wolfe, an environmental microbiologist at Emory University. Still, the current levels remain lower than concentrations seen during previous winter peaks.
Concentrations of the virus vary somewhat in different communities, but levels are currently high across the country, says Wolfe, who is also a program director at WastewaterSCAN, a nonprofit that analyzes wastewater samples from about 150 sites across the country for a range of infectious diseases to understand their prevalence. (The CDC also operates a wastewater monitoring network.(which also reveals very high levels of COVID across the country.)
However, data over the past three weeks show relatively stable concentrations after steady growth throughout the summerWhich makes Wolfe hopeful that rates could start to fall soon, though that doesn’t mean we’re safe. “Even if we start to see that decline, these concentrations are still very high, and that represents a lot of people who are infected and sick right now,” Wolfe says.
COVID is less deadly; long COVID takes a toll
New long-term studies are also helping us better understand the full impact of the pandemic over time.
Newly released preliminary data from the CDC show that COVID deaths has dropped sharply from 2022 to 2023, falling to 10th place among causes of death last year from fourth place previously.
Despite this improvement, a new analysis was published this month shows The Severe Consequences of Long COVID worldwide. The report estimates that 400 million people will be diagnosed with the disease between 2020 and 2023, costing conservatively about $1 trillion a year. “These numbers are huge,” says Ziyad Al-Ali, a clinical epidemiologist at Washington University in St. Louis and director of research at the Veterans Administration St. Louis Health System, who co-authored the new paper. “It’s a grim picture.”
Some people who have long-term COVID recover fully, but they are far from the majority. Many continue to struggle a year after infection, al-Ali notes. And while research into the condition has advanced in the past couple of years, including through the National Institutes of Health’s COVID Research to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER) initiative, he is still lagging behindhe says.
Masks and vaccinations can help
The same preventive tactics remain available and effective: Vaccines can reduce your chances of getting a serious infection. And wearing a mask can help you avoid getting the virus or passing it on to others if you’re infectious.
Infectious disease experts say weakened immunity from a previous vaccination or infection could make people susceptible to COVID. But fortunately, updated vaccines are coming soon that will provide protection against latest SARS-CoV-2 variantsPfizer and Moderna will produce new mRNA vaccines adapted to the currently circulating variant, KP.2. Meanwhile, Novavax is making a traditional protein-based vaccine adapted to another variant, called JN.1. Both of these variants are offshoots of the Omicron variant. As of August 20, KP.2 and another variant called KP.3 are currently the most dominant forms in the United States. All of these variants are very closely related, and the vaccines are expected to provide equally strong immunity to them.
The CDC recommends updated COVID vaccines for everyone 6 months and older. The Food and Drug Administration approved the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines on Aug. 22 and is expected to do the same soon with the Novavax vaccine. Pfizer and Moderna officials have said their vaccines should be available within days. As a preventive care, the new vaccines should be fully covered by insurance, says Archana Chatterjee, a pediatric infectious disease expert at Rosalind Franklin University. People who don’t have insurance face additional hurdles because the federal government ended the program that would maintain access to COVID vaccines through the end of this year. Chatterjee suggests that such people explore manufacturers' access programs to get the shot for free or at a reduced cost. Children can also get vaccines for free through the federal government's Vaccines for Children program..
As with previous versions, the new COVID vaccines are designed to reduce the likelihood of serious illnesses— a type of infection that can hospitalize or even kill a person. While it’s too early to tell how the three vaccine brands will perform against each other, Chatterjee says she doesn’t want people to get hung up on the different options and just get the shot. She also encourages people to get vaccinated as early as possible rather than waiting until the expected winter surge. While the immune response from the vaccine is strongest within two to three months of the shot, it lasts long afterward.
“My advice to people is to get the updated vaccine as soon as it’s available,” Chatterjee says. Her biggest hope is that more people will get the new vaccine than they did last year. Only one in 10 people hospitalized with COVID last year got the newest shot, and as of May, only one in five adults in the U.S. had received the 2023–24 vaccine — a number Chatterjee calls “deplorable.” “It’s not going to control this disease,” she says, adding that we need to do better this year.
People who are particularly at high risk for serious COVID infections will get the chance to get a booster shot a few months after their first dose of the new vaccine to further strengthen their immune systems. And people with weakened immune systems will also have a new option for COVID protection: Earlier this year, the FDA approved an intravenous treatment called pemivibart that can be administered every three months. The drug is a man-made antibody that is designed to trigger an immune response to a COVID infection.
Treatment remains an option
People who become infected with COVID and develop severe symptoms can and should receive treatment.
“The most proven method of treatment at present remains Paxlovid“We still recommend it for those who are at the highest risk,” says Jonathan Lee, a virologist at Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School. The standard dosage of Paxlovid is 30 tablets of two antiviral drugs taken over five days.
But paxovid can interact with other drugs, and additional COVID treatments are available. Remdesivir, currently only available as a daily injection in health care settings, remains a valuable tool, says H. Clifford Lane, an infectious disease specialist at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, as does molnupiravir, another multi-dose, multi-day oral drug.
Lane says that while all of these options are clearly safe, circumstances have changed significantly since they were first tested and approved. “The host population has changed; the virus has changed,” Lane says. Doctors don’t have the data to determine whether these drugs are still matters for people who are at lower risk of severe disease. “It's just not so clear if [they’re effective if] “You're an otherwise healthy 30-year-old with a runny nose and you test positive,” Lane says. “I think most [clinicians] I would not appoint them under such conditions.”