The idea is gaining traction. Some speak of a “diverse majority.” Others say “several” or “plural.” Some believe that all parties should be included, except the far right. And others believe that the radical left should also be excluded from Jean-Luc Mélenchon's France Insoumise (LFI). But among the centrist parties that make up the alliance supporting Emmanuel Macron, some of the right and the moderate left, the option of a grand parliamentary coalition is beginning to take shape. I would be the way to stop a far-right government if the National Regroupment (RN), even if it wins, does not obtain an absolute majority in the second round of the parliamentary elections this Sunday.

The grand coalition project has gained strength after the first round last Sunday, The centre and left have agreed on a cordon sanitaire against Marine Le Pen's party. More than 220 candidates have withdrawn from the second round in districts where three candidates had qualified and where the far right could win. By withdrawing, they prevent the vote from being dispersed and concentrate it on the candidate who can defeat the RN candidate.

In a first survey after the withdrawals, the Harris Interactive Institute indicates that four out of ten French people believe that no bloc will obtain an absolute majority. And it reduces the RN's seat forecast to a maximum of 220 (the absolute majority is 289). The centrist bloc around President Emmanuel Macron, which should obtain between 110 and 135 seats, is holding up better than expected so far, while the left-wing alliance New Popular Front (NFP) is expected to remain between 159 and 183 seats.

While they wait to see what the French will finally answer at the ballot box, called upon not to vote for anyone but against the RN, even if it supports with its nose covered a candidate they do not like, the major formations are beginning to analyse scenarios for the next day.

The possibility, unprecedented in France's recent history, of a grand parliamentary alliance What a technical government could be based on is starting to be mentioned most by moderate parties. According to outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, an alternative “Plural Assembly” to the RN “could bring together different political groups from the right, the left and the center who, project by project, work together in the service of the French.” It would be a question, added François Bayrou, leader of the centrist MoDem, an ally of Macronism, of “finding unprecedented answers” to avoid an institutional blockade if none of the blocs obtains a sufficient majority to govern. That is where the “Republicans” and “Democrats,” who are willing to negotiate and “take on their responsibilities,” would come into play, he said.

Faced with the realization that even the NFP, the second strongest bloc after the RN in the first round, does not have the possibility of reaching or approaching an absolute majority, pragmatism prevails. Socialists, environmentalists and even communists are returning to the idea of the grand coalition. But they are demanding that their likely greater parliamentary weight than the Macronist center be recognized in the future agreement. A prime minister for such a government would have to come from their ranks, they say, although they all agree to call for caution in the elections four days before the new nomination.

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“The most important thing is to vote to exclude the far right and to have the largest possible number of left-wing deputies in the National Assembly,” he said. the former socialist president and candidate for deputy François Hollande On the France Info station, once that scenario has been realized, the possibility of a provisional agreement for one year could be discussed, until new legislative elections can be held, or even three, until the presidential elections in 2027. And according to Hollande, it must also be “decided which proposals each group considers essential” to govern with that common minimum program.

Communist deputy Sébastien Jumel shares the idea: “We could set simple objectives, we are not obliged to agree on everything.” According to the communist, the coalition would be “an arc of the Gaullism “to the communists, through left-wing people of good will.”

The general secretary of the environmentalists, Marine Tondelier, also says he is not closing the door on this possibility because of the “risk of the country becoming ungovernable”, which means that “we will certainly have to do things that no one has done before. ” Like a conservative prime minister, Édouard Philippe, Emmanuel Macron's first head of government in 2017, will vote for the communist candidate in his constituency next Sunday to stop the RN candidate, as revealed on Wednesday. Of course, the head of the Horizons party, linked to Macronism, has also set the limit on the radical left since the beginning of the campaign under the 'neither-nor' principle: 'Neither the RN, nor the LFI.'

The alternatives “are not only a majority of the RN or the blockade of the Assembly”, Xavier Bertrand, heavyweight of the traditional right of Los Republicanos (LR), sister party of the Spanish PP, indicated this on the France Inter network. And he added: “There is another solution: a provisional government that brings together in the Assembly men and women of good will who are able to open up to a specific project.” LR, the traditional right-wing party, is experiencing a deep crisis after the decision of its still formal president, Éric Ciotti, to ally with the RN, against the will of its barons, including Bertrand.

However, the reservations remain great in all areas. Both LR and Macronism explicitly exclude Mélenchon's rebels from a multi-government agreement. “We will not govern with La Francia Insumisa”, he stressed. President Emmanuel Macron, during the last cabinet meeting before the elections, according to several media outlets citing sources present at the meeting. “Fighting the RN today does not mean allying with LFI tomorrow,” government spokesperson Prisca Thevenot explained after the meeting. “We cannot make LFI the alpha and omega of the left in France,” he added. Shortly afterwards, Attal also said in X: “There is and will never be an alliance with LFI.” In turn, the environmentalist Tondelier, like other members of the NFP, rules out that the prime minister of a possible government of this type could come from the Macronist ranks.

In any case, Mélenchon's party refuses to join such an agreement. “The rebels will govern only to implement their program,” said the national coordinator of LFI, Manuel Bompard, in this regard. The newspaper The World stresses that of the 81 withdrawals of Macronist candidates before the second round, only twenty benefit a candidate not submissivewhile about fifty do so for other candidates of the New Popular Front (socialists, environmentalists and communists). Something that, the newspaper indicates, is intended to “reduce the influence of Mélenchon's party on the left” and thus lay the foundation for a possible coalition with the social democrats.

The RN is the clear favorite on Sunday, albeit without the absolute majority that its candidate for Prime Minister Jordan Bardella claims to govern. The leader of the far-right party, Marine Le Pen, said after the first round that if she only gets a relative majority of around 270 seats, she will seek an alliance to achieve an absolute majority with deputies from the right.

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