EU leaders held their first dinner this Monday in preparation for the new phase of the EU. The heads of government of the 27 will start power-sharing negotiations after the European elections and in principle have until the end of the month to finalize the details of who will be the new high-ranking officials (the so-called top jobs in community language). Accustomed to getting involved in conversations and letting them last for hours until dawn (and even postponing them for several days, as happened in 2019), on this occasion everything seems more orderly than five years ago, but nothing can be taken for granted in a club that welcomes 27 states with different interests.
Ursula von der Leyen is the favorite to repeat as President of the European Commission. The European People's Party this week emphasized its legitimacy after being nominated after improving its results in the elections, although the 'peak candidates' model (candidates at European level from the parties) is not binding, which means that the leaders could nominate anyone, as happened with Von der Leyen himself in the previous legislature.
Once the leaders have made their appointment, which must be accepted by a qualified majority (representing at least 55% of the countries and 65% of the European population), it must be ratified by the absolute majority of the European Parliament. During her mandate, Von der Leyen has won the sympathy of government leaders and strives to confirm that trust. At present, only the Hungarian far-right Viktor Orbán has announced his explicit rejection.
Where the numbers may be fairer is in the European Parliament. The proposal that comes from the Council must receive 361 votes in favor. The forces that make up the traditional majority (popular, socialists and liberals) together account for 402 votes, but the groups do not function in Brussels with the same voting discipline as national parliaments are used to and, moreover, the vote is secret. In 2019, Von der Leyen did a priori received the support of 444 Members of the European Parliament and emerged victorious with 383 votes (only nine more than what it needed at the time, as there were 750 seats due to Britain's presence). And then the Law and Justice Party, which governed Poland, assured that it voted in favor.
Now the great battle is over as to who supports Von der Leyen. Socialists and liberals oppose an agreement involving the far right, which is the temptation they have in the European PP, especially with Giorgia Meloni. But if the Italian Prime Minister joins the leaders' consensus, it will be difficult for the Fratelli d'Italia to reject it in the European Chamber. The Greens have offered to join the majority if Von der Leyen remains committed to environmental policy and have increased pressure on the possibility of ECR (the group led by Meloni) becoming part of the equation. “The Greens/EFA Group wants to see an agreement that guarantees a stable majority that is reliable, democratic and pro-European, without the far right, such as the ECR,” said co-chair Terry Reintke.
The fact that the vote is secret could precisely pave the way for it to go ahead, as it is not clear who votes what, although the majority members of the European Parliament can also distance themselves if Meloni is in the previous agreement. Therein lies the difficulty of the process. But once the EPP gets drawn into the daily life of the European Parliament, it will be tempted to look to the right, while the Socialists and Liberals reject that option. The Socialists have clearly emphasized the need to involve the Greens.
The other high position being circulated is the Presidency of the European Council, which is fundamentally responsible for building the consensus and agreements between the leaders of the 27. The unwritten tradition is that the name comes from the room in which the heads of the 27 government, that is, the President of the European Council is one of their own leaders. On this occasion, the Socialists demand that this position is intended for them, after this legislature adopted it from the Belgian liberal Charles Michel.
Ideological, territorial and gender balance
Pedro Sánchez and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are conducting the negotiations on behalf of the Socialists. The bet is that former Prime Minister António Costa will become the new President of the European Council. His abrupt departure from the Portuguese government, following a corruption case that initially apparently affected him as a result of judicial rulings, was palpable in the European institutions, where he was highly respected.
The other important position that is being divided is that of the High Representative, who acts as a kind of head of European diplomacy, even though foreign policy is agreed with the Member States and every step requires the unanimity of the 27. The name known in the ears ringing The power to succeed Josep Borrell is that of the Prime Minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, who belongs to the liberal family. Kallas has become a kind of 'iron lady' against Vladimir Putin, who had her searched for and captured.
Kallas has been one of the main defenders of Ukraine within the EU, as well as in general the Baltic countries and the countries bordering Russia, which experience the threat most intensely. Her statements about the conflict – she even said that “Russia must lose to avoid World War III” in Ukraine – raise some concerns about a future position as head of diplomacy, but at least she is starting her career as 'frontrunner'.
Alexander de Croo, who has lost all ability to move forward after the setback in the Belgian elections, is one of the leaders who favors this division of power; but it would to some extent break the balance they have to find between political colour, gender and territoriality (there would be no one from the east and the visible faces of the EU would again come from the western or central part of Europe).
Romania blocks NATO aid
Many place the move by Romania's President Klaus Iohannis to compete for NATO Secretary General in the demand for territorial balance. This relief has ultimately become intertwined with the division of EU positions due to the continued delays in the departure of the current head of the Allies, the Norwegian Jens Stoltenberg, who first expanded his mandate due to the outbreak of war in Ukraine . and then because of the lack of consensus on a possible successor.
But Klaus Iohannis' candidacy came at exactly the right time was already disappearing for the still Prime Minister of Holland, Mark Rutte, who supported the major countries. It currently has the support of 29 of the 32 countries that make up the Atlantic alliance. Among those who did not vote for Rutte are Romania itself, which has launched its candidate, Hungary, which will support him as long as he remains in the race, and Slovakia, which has not made a statement.
“It is Johanis who must make the decision,” point out allied sources, who question the maneuver and trust that Viktor Orbán will support Rutte, despite his differences, if the Romanian steps aside, and Robert Fico does the same. Until then, we have to wait and the allies, according to these sources, want to arrive at the 75th anniversary summit in Washington with the relay closed to paint an image of unity and also send it to Putin.