Since Nicola Sturgeon stepped down as Scotland’s first minister last March, a police investigation into Scottish National party finances has handed her successor a toxic inheritance as he faces a fierce general election battle with a resurgent Labour party.

Humza Yousaf has struggled to get on the front foot amid a litany of rows. His health minister quit this month over an £11,000 data bill, the UK Covid inquiry has scrutinised Scottish officials’ deletion of private messages during the pandemic, and his government’s record on public services has been questioned relentlessly — all while the police probe looms.

With a UK general election expected this year, Scottish Labour is hoping to exploit disillusionment with the pro-independence party and the weakening bond between it and independence supporters in order to help oust Rishi Sunak’s Conservative government.

“With the link unravelling, every seat is marginal,” said Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde university.

Continued momentum could lead Labour to seize 36 of the 59 Scottish seats in the House of Commons, up from two at present, he said. But if the SNP lured back some people who voted Yes in the 2014 independence referendum, Labour could be limited to about 12.

“It doesn’t take a great deal of movement either way for a very different outcome,” he said. “It’s all very much on a knife edge.”

Survation polling last month showed the SNP and Labour tied at 23 Scottish seats each. A separate Ipsos poll in early February gave the SNP a seven-point lead, but Labour carved out five points from the nationalists’ 12-point lead in May last year.

Emily Gray, Ipsos’ managing director in Scotland, said Labour was making “considerable headway” but “should not be complacent about the SNP as an electoral force”.

Scottish Labour was brimming with confidence at its party conference in Glasgow over the weekend, despite simmering tensions about the national party’s approach to the Israel-Gaza conflict.

UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer may not poll well north of the border but its Scottish head Anas Sarwar was “cutting through”, said one ally. In Glasgow, both men appealed to voters who have previously switched to the SNP, arguing that Scotland’s influence would be strongest in tandem with a Labour government.

But the party has also warned against taking anything for granted. One insider has quipped to allies that “anyone guilty of complacency is sent to the basement to read Keir’s last conference speech”.

Two central problems for the SNP are Yousaf’s low personal ratings and internal divisions exposed by last year’s bitter leadership contest, with rows over the party’s independence strategy and its stance on social issues.

Widely regarded as a capable and genuine politician, Yousaf appears hemmed in by his predecessor’s tarnished legacy and the SNP’s weary image after 17 years in power.

The 38-year-old — who presented himself as the continuity candidate in last year’s race — has raised his profile in recent interviews, winning plaudits for opening up about his mental health and leading calls for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, where some of his relatives remain trapped.

SNP strategists calculate that lowering expectations and limiting Labour’s march through the populous central belt between Glasgow and Edinburgh will at least sustain the party as a political grouping.

Winning more seats than Labour north of the border would allow Yousaf to claim victory, aides said, keeping the flame of independence alive. If Starmer failed to achieve a comfortable UK majority, the path to a second referendum would become clearer, they added.

“The question for voters is: who will give a strong, robust defence of Scotland? Not Sir Keir, that’s for sure,” said an adviser to Yousaf. “He’s weak, has no policies — what is there to believe in?”

Labour’s U-turn on its £28bn-a-year green spending plan was “madness” from a climate perspective and economically “illiterate”, said Neil Gray, Scotland’s new health secretary. “It will cost Labour, particularly in Scotland.” Yousaf has also accused the party of putting 100,000 Scottish jobs at risk with its plans for a “proper” windfall tax on the energy industry.

For years, the SNP shrugged off assaults on its record in government. But opposition attack lines on healthcare, education, transport and higher tax rates for the wealthier are now landing with the electorate, pollsters said.

The Scottish Conservatives, which won six House of Commons seats at the last election, have been leading the charge. They calculate that voters are more likely to punish nationalist incompetence in Edinburgh than Tory chaos in London.

The party is targeting six more seats in north-east Scotland, where many oil and gas workers are worried about the energy transition, as well as the south.

The Liberal Democrats also hope to retain their four Scottish seats and regain the constituencies of former leaders Jo Swinson and Charles Kennedy.

A good showing in England, combined with SNP decline, would allow the Lib Dems to take the third-largest number of seats across the UK. “Third place at Westminster is critical and the SNP have never really used it properly for Scotland,” said Christine Jardine, MP for Edinburgh West.

With the woes of Yousaf’s party dominating the discourse, many unionists argue the constitutional question has been buried. Yet nationalist aides are relishing the prospect of a timid Starmer government struggling to repair a UK in tatters. That would allow the SNP to shift the blame for Scotland’s troubles on to the Labour leader, triggering a fierce battle in the 2026 Holyrood elections.

And with roughly half of Scots still backing independence, others fear that no discernible change under a Labour government could stoke nationalist sentiment.

“If this doesn’t work, and the Tories eventually get back in, we will have a big problem with the constitutional debate,” said one Labour figure.

Via