The decision of the ERC bases was not easy and the support for the agreement came by a much smaller margin than management would have liked: 53% against 44%. But in the end Salvador Illa has received sufficient support from the twenty pro-independence delegateswhich can add to the 6 of the House of Commonsto undergo an investiture session that will make him the next president of the Generalitat.
The road is clear, but not yet free of possible accidents. The most feared at the moment is the decision that must be taken by the ERC youth organization Jovent Republicá, which has already announced that they will decide on the vote of their deputy in parliament this Monday.
Although the ERC does not even consider the possibility that its youth could opt for a decision that goes against the opinion of the entire force, the truth is that the vote of deputy Mar Besses could be the key to Illa's inauguration: her rejection of the agreement between Republicans and Socialists, and even an abstention, would frustrate the election of the PSC leader.
“We have the utmost respect for the internal debate of the Jovernt Republicà, but I trust that an agreement will be reached,” Marta Rovira said on Friday. But despite the caution until the youth organization makes a decision, neither within the ERC nor within the PSC believe that this setback is likely once the republican militancy exam has been passed, and even some voices within the ERC compare it to a 'tamayazo'.
In addition to this possible final setback, there was relief last Friday from both the Republican and Socialist headquarters. Both have at least avoided a situation that would have led Catalonia to an uncertain re-election and that has left the positions of both those affected: the ERC because of the poor prospects and the PSC because it was faced with a campaign in which it had to defend the agreement reached.
All this was avoided in an internal ERC meeting with high participation and in which the yes vote was imposed to the minimum. “It is a vigilant yes”, summarized Marta Rovira, who stressed that the leadership interprets the division in the militancy as a sign of the difficulty of the moment and the political distance from the PSC.
Illa will form a minority government
Salvador Illa now has the responsibility of undergoing an investiture and, if nothing goes wrong, of being installed as the first non-independence president after the process. The socialist will arrive at the Palau de la Generalitat with the strength of someone who knows that he has no alternative majority in parliament, but also of someone who starts his career in a government that is in the minority and is forced to defend a very ambitious policy. agreement with ERC.
The Catalan Socialists were aware that the agreement to invest Salvador Illa would not exactly be praised outside Catalonia. It is always difficult for the PSOE to defend regional financing in favor of Catalonia, as it had been until now to talk about anything resembling an extension of the economic agreement to other communities than Euskadi and Navarra.
But in the PSC they also understood that on the one hand they had to sign an agreement that would undoubtedly convince the ERC's militancy, because none of the leaders, neither in Madrid nor in Barcelona, can stand up to the arithmetic that they express. And on the other hand, they also consider that the achievements of the PSOE or the PSC are ideal moments to take steps towards the decentralization of the state.
This is how we arrived at a document that has given much food for thought, so much among socialists as one of the opponents, and that has also raised many doubts about the compliance with the ERC principles. However, both the PSOE and the PSC have chosen to defend italthough they have maintained their silence under the pretext of respecting the Republicans' deliberations. On Saturday, Illa will finally speak out for the first time and make explicit her interpretation of what has been agreed.
Puigdemont's swift but imminent investiture
Both Socialists and Republicans do not want to postpone the investiture of Illa and want to schedule it, as far as possible, in the coming days. But both look askance at Carles Puigdemont, who has promised to return to Catalonia for the debate on the election of the next president. A situation that, if it happens, could lead to the arrest of the former president the Supreme Court rejected amnesty.
The Republicans assure that the sword of Damocles that the leader of the Junts is holding out will not in any way make them change the meaning of their vote. But it could push everyone, including Illa himself, to find suitable dates for the inauguration and to overlap Puigdemont's arrest as little as possible with the entry of the socialist into the Palau de la Generalitat.
The PSC is prepared to be generous in the calendar, because they reiterate that they stand behind the signed agreement. A gesture towards an ERC leadership that has burned like hell to steer the ship to the shore, which they believe is the lesser evil. The party has not suffered a shipwreck, but almost, and few photos show a divided formation more explicitly than the 53% against 44% that the Illa talks produced.
Now Marta Rovira, Pere Aragonès and the rest of the leadership hope that ERC will stay out of the public spotlight for a few months, the time needed to hold a congress at the end of November and for the bases to choose a new direction. Oriol Junqueras will join them, who has chosen to distance himself, at least publicly, from the decision to invest in Illa. But it is very likely that alternative leaders will also emerge. And they will all come up with a new strategy on how to relate to the PSC minority government.