Spain is aging and the figures confirm this. Within fifteen years, the population aged 80 and over will grow by 47.5%, from almost three million in 2024 to 4.35 million in 2039. The number of centenarians will practically triple and exceed 46,000, compared to almost 17,000 this year. These are some of the conclusions of the population forecasts prepared by the National Statistical Institute and which, according to the organization, do not constitute a prediction of the future, but rather seek to clarify how the country will evolve if current demographic trends are maintained. . Within three decades There will still be more deaths than births and growth will be fundamentally driven by migration. A third of all households will be owned by one person, equating to 7.7 million single-occupancy homes, up from the current 5.4.
This last variable is a reliable indicator of how Spain has changed in recent decades. The average household size continues to decline. From about four people in 1970 to the 2.5 that the INE expects for this year, which will lead to 2.32 within fifteen years. During the period studied, 3.7 million homes will be added in our country, to more than 23 million. And over the next thirty years, the households that will grow the most will be the smallest: single-person households (which lead the way with almost 42%) or households consisting of two people. To a lesser extent that of three people. While those with four people or more would even experience a discount. Thus, in 2039, the most common type of household will be that of a single person (33.5% of the total, compared to the 31% that will be represented by households with two people).
“Families with more than two children are becoming a rarity these days. In a country where motherhood is postponed and fewer children are born, many couples will not have children. In the long term, given that women live longer than men, there will be more single-person households consisting mainly of older women,” explains Diego Ramiro, professor of demographic research at the High Council for Scientific Research (CSIC). Although the number of single-family homes is growing in all autonomous communities, the regions that will lead the way in fifteen years will be Castilla y León (41.9%), followed by Asturias (40.5%) and Extremadura (38.3%). “They are the oldest,” says Ramiro. Those with the lowest percentage are the Balearic Islands (28.9%), Murcia (29.5%) and Madrid (30.4%).
This expert points out that it is difficult to measure what effect mating patterns and couple breakups have on this data, although they are likely to have an influence. “Fifty years ago, few people lived together without getting married. Now this has changed, but we have no information about it. It would be interesting to have a study that measures family form patterns,” he continues. Albert Esteve, director of the Center for Demographic Studies at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, agrees that “the majority of those who live alone are elderly.” Although he adds that given housing prices, “life in big cities will only be within the reach of a few, especially among the young.”
The last year of definitive data that the INE uses in its statistics is 2022 and from there it predicts what would happen year on year if current trends continue. On the one hand, it is examined how homes will change over the next thirty years. On the other hand, how the population will develop over the next 50 years, also taking into account the opinions of demographers from across the country. Both Ramiro and Esteve agree The major factor that will determine the coming years is migration. According to forecasts, the country will have more than five million inhabitants in the next thirty years and almost six million inhabitants by 2074, reaching 54.6 million people. Population growth will be solely due to the arrival of foreigners, who will compensate for the deaths.
“We have had flows in recent years [migratorios] roomy. In 2022, a net migration of 727,005 people was reached, the highest in 10 years. “It is a volume comparable to that of the 2000s,” says Ramiro of the CSIC. “The fact that we will have five million inhabitants in fifteen years places us on a growth path comparable to that of then,” he adds. Esteve continues: “Contrary to what you might think from the demographic trend itself, which suggested a population decline, international immigration has been incorporated as a structural part of Spanish society.” The Spanish-born population would gradually decline, going from 81.9% today to 61% within 50 years.
But while the population is growing in the country as a whole, it is not growing equally in all autonomous communities. While it would increase in thirteen regions, there are four regions that would register a decrease. The Balearic Islands and the Valencian Community would experience the largest growth, with 19%, while the largest declines would occur in Asturias, with 4.1%, and in Extremadura, with 3.4%. The Mediterranean is growing more, the older regions are declining, Ramiro says, and “there is no pattern of recovery in the coming years, but rather this effect is accentuated.” Esteve points out the “asymmetric impact” of migration on the territory.
The organization studies three variables to make population forecasts. In addition to migration, there are deaths and births. The former will continue to rise. Moreover, more deaths than births are expected over the fifty years analyzed. The maximum number of deaths would be reached in 2065. And that also applies to life expectancy will continue to increase, This will happen in a less linear manner than in previous years. The organization estimates that this will increase by 5.6 years for men, to 86 years in 2073, and by 4.3 years for women, to 90 years. “Between 1975 and 2022, life expectancy increased by about 10 years,” Ramiro explains. “There are several reasons that explain this. For example, in the case of women, they adopt unhealthy habits such as smoking, something that will increase cancer mortality. And higher levels of obesity, especially in childhood, will generate a population with a higher prevalence of diabetes,” he continues.
Given the current population structure, the percentage of people over 65 would increase from 20.4% in 2024 to a maximum of 30.5% around 2055. The increase is also large among octogenarians. While 6% of the population will have reached the age of 80 in 2024, this will be 12.3% in 2074. It will no longer be so rare to exceed 100. Within fifteen years this figure will practically triple; In 2074 it will multiply by 14.5, until it exceeds 245,000 people. “The older the population, the more health care services it needs, the more dependent care, there are also pensions… The state will have to prepare to spend, in absolute and relative numbers, more and more budget on these older population groups.” he warns. And Ramiro continues: “We get an older pyramid, because with fertility [número de hijos por mujer] of 1.16, like that of 2022, or 1.24 [como proyecta el INE para 2038]“We will have a fairly high average age, which will be compensated by the arrival of migrants.”
Spain has been struggling with a decline in the number of births for years. They are partly due to the fact that fewer and fewer generations are of childbearing age, but also to the fact that fewer and fewer children are being born, and later. However, the projections are somewhat optimistic and foresee a slight increase from this year until 2042, when they would start to decrease again, and from 2058 they would increase again, due to the reaching ages of higher fertility of larger generations. “Births depend in part on the size of the fertile population. From 2024-2030, relatively complete generations will start to join [a la edad a la que se tiene descendencia], are those born between 2000 and 2007,” Esteve explains. “On the other hand, immigration can also help increase the number of births,” he adds. “The INE is generally optimistic [respecto a la fecundidad] thinking that we have reached the bottom and that 1.16 children per woman is a minimum and that we are now going up,” he concludes.
Of course, while the organization estimates that there will be 5.5 million newborns between 2024 and 2038, that would still be 8.7% fewer than those born in the previous fifteen years. The number of children per woman has not increased significantly; it would reach 1.34 at most by 2073. And the average age at which women have children would remain quite stable, around 32 years over the period analyzed, decreasing slightly from 32.5. in 2024 to 32.16 in 2042, recovering slightly later. There is no doubt that there will be fewer births than deaths throughout the period.