The electoral replay that Catalonia is heading for once the countdown in parliament is activated, I wouldn't change the scene too much current blockade after the May 12 elections. At least that is what the Sociological Research Center (CIS) in the post-electoral survey published this Tuesday, which does not ask about voting intentions in a possible election, but does indicate that 93.9% of those who voted for 12M would return today to repeat the political training.
The clock is ticking in Catalonia call on citizens again with the ballot boxes. August 26 is the deadline for, if the negotiations are fruitful, there will be a new regional president. If no candidacy is successful, the acting president, Pere Aragonès, will call elections for October 13This Tuesday, the public institute chaired by José Félix Tezanos, although it does not explicitly mention a hypothetical electoral rerun, included in its post-electoral survey some keys that could reveal the starting positions of each party.
According to the CIS, about 94% of Catalans would vote the same again, although Junts and PSC have an advantage. Specifically, the survey was conducted between 11 and 17 June, before the Supreme Court setback for escaped former presidentpoints out that 96.9% of those who supported the candidacy of Carlos Puigdemont would do it again today, while 96.5% of the socialist electorate would repeat their vote Salvador Illanow that the results and the broad victory of the PSC are known, which however needs ERC to govern.
This last whole internal power struggle After the 12 million setback, it would be harder to maintain the loyalty of his voters. According to the CIS, 92% would vote for Esquerra againwell below Junts and PSC, and in the same percentage as the Lower House. The PP, in turn, would retain 94.5% of its electorate. On the other hand, as for those who regret it, up to 11.6% of those who voted for the CUP would now vote for another party. Also Aliança Catalana is about 10% of the breakaways and Vox 8%The ERC would worsen the crisis if 6.8% of voters were willing to change their vote.
What would not change is the very high percentage of Catalans who abstained: 42.05% on May 12. According to the CIS, 88.9% of those who did not want to vote then would not do so today. Of these, close to the 70% show clear dissatisfaction with politics: 29.3% say they do not feel represented by any party, 24.8% do not care whether or not they vote and 14.6% are fed up with politics and elections; which would in principle explain a lower participation, if possible, in the event of repeated elections. In this scenario, the Junts and the PSC, those who, according to the CIS, retain the greatest loyalty among their voters, would gain ground.
Voice changes
Another key that the CIS provides in its post-electoral survey is the change in the decision to vote for one party or another. During the last election campaignonly 12.6% changed their votewhich reiterates the idea that, despite the possible variations that may occur, positions are more than consolidated and that electoral campaigns currently have limited effects on the final result. At that time, the percentage of Catalans who changed their decision was higher in Aliança Catalana (36.4%) or the CUP (28%) than in the PSC (9.7%) or the PP (8.4%).
Be that as it may, regardless of whether or not you change your initial decision, up to 27.9% of the electorate made up their mind about their vote in the past week. Specifically, 14.7% did so in the days leading up to 12M, 4.8% decided during the reflection day and 8.5% did so on election day itself.