The French left, divided in recent months by the war in Gaza and Ukraine, or by the personalism of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, united this Monday to call for a “new popular front” to organize the early parliamentary elections in France on June 30 to live. July 7. The “new popular front” would bring together the radical and Eurosceptic left, social democrats who support the EU and NATO, as well as the trade unions.
In a statement released after an afternoon of negotiations, the left announced an agreement in principle to present individual candidates with a “break-apart programme”, as well as measures that would be applied during the first 100 days of government if they win a parliamentary majority. The content of this program is unclear and has not yet been negotiated in detail.
The hangover in France following the victory of Marine Le Pen's far right in Sunday's European elections and the unexpected announcement of early elections has not yet disappeared. The anesthesia is rather total a decision by President Emmanuel Macron that no one expected, not even a large part of the people around him. But the movements have already begun for an express campaign of only three weeks, and on which depends the big question: will the ultra formation finally win this time, after repeated failed attempts?
The elections will be held in two rounds, on June 30 and July 7. The 577 deputies that make up the National Assembly will be elected, each in a district. June 16 is the deadline for submitting candidates. The Macronist bloc is the bloc with the most deputies in the current Chamber, 250, although it does not reach an absolute majority. Le Pen's National Rally (RN) has 88.
Everyone goes blind except the publication Challenges released a poll by the Harris Interactive Institute, and it doesn't bode well for Macron. The RN would gain 34% in the first round, with a projection of seats in the second round of between 235 and 265. In second place would be the Left with 22% and between 115 and 145 deputies, as long as they attend together are. The current presidential majority would rank third: 19% and between 125 and 155 seats. These are figures that you should take with a grain of salt: with 577 districts, two rounds and without yet knowing the candidates and coalitions, any projection is risky. But at the very least it shows the risk of the early call, which the president justified by the need to give the French the floor after the electoral setback.
Dare? Dare? The more details are known behind the scenes of the President's decision, which was announced at 9:04 PM on Sunday in an address to the nation after the election results were known, the clearer it becomes that he decided this alone, without more than a very small group of advisors to be consulted. He called the government officials together at 7:15 PM to explain it to them. The chronicles say that they were as confused as the French would be an hour and fifteen minutes later. According to BFM-TV, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal tried to convince him to accept his resignation rather than dissolve the National Assembly. Without success.
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The dilemma of the French left was whether to re-present themselves with a common brand, as was the New Progressive Environmental and Social Union (NUPES) in 2022. In a statement, France Insoumise (LFI), hitherto hegemonic on the left, defended lowering the retirement age from 64 to 60 and “rejecting the escalation of the war in Ukraine.” These are some of the points that could pose problems for the PS, which is now feeling strong after its candidate on the list for the European elections, Raphaël Glucksmann, finished in third place, ahead of LFI. “Not with Mélenchon,” Paris mayor Socialist Anne Hidalgo told EL PAÍS on Monday.
The Macronists strive for a different kind of union: what has been known in France for years as the republican front. That is, the union of the space that runs from the PS to the moderate right of Los Republicanos to stop the extreme right. I would exclude Mélenchon's and Le Pen's. The idea is that in constituencies where the RN candidate can win, the republicans to defeat him. “I trust the people,” Macron said during a pre-planned visit to Oradour-sur-Glane, a town martyred by Nazi Germany at the end of World War II.
The president relies on his powers of persuasion. He also believes that the parliamentary elections are different from the European ones because many voters use these European Parliament elections to cast a sanction vote against the government. He hopes that the content will be voted on in the parliamentary elections and that the French will be aware of the consequences of their vote. The division of the left could allow macronist candidates to qualify for the second round against an RN candidate and, to prevent his victory, gain the support of left-wing voters.
After the elections, three scenarios emerge. The first is a new macronist majority, or a coalition with the moderate right, that would allow him to continue governing. Another scenario is that of a National Assembly without any dominant party and therefore ungovernable unless governing coalitions are built, a far cry from French political culture. The third scenario is that of a chamber in which the RN was the first fighting force and the future Prime Minister emerged from this group. Jordan Bardella ―Le Pen's right-hand man and triumphant candidate in the European elections, 28 years old and a brilliant career― He is the natural candidate for the position.
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