Spain was left out of the first industrial revolution and arrived late in the second. An imbalance that has persisted for decades and which largely explains the income gap with the richest countries in Europe. Today, halfway between the Third and Fourth Industrial Revolutions, fortune smiles on her: with one of the lowest electricity costs on the Old Continent, it has a golden opportunity not only to halt the feared deindustrialization, but also to attract activities that are now chosen by other countries. The six experts consulted by this newspaper agree that the hand is good, with enviable cards. But rather than lapsing into premature triumphalism, they still need to play them well.

Last week, Amazon made an investment of almost 16,000 million euros in a large network of data centers in Zaragoza and Huesca. An activity questioned due to the high water consumption and the flight from part of the current hubs continental (Amsterdam and Dublin), where it has neither electricity nor network. Amazon sees Aragon as an ideal place to establish itself: renewable electricity, both solar and wind, is on the rise; large areas of land available; skilled workers with lower salaries than in Europe's richest countries; and its proximity to France, from where you can connect to the rest of the EU. The ad is one of those that takes the hiccups away. And also a kind of foretaste of what is to come.

“We are very well positioned: we are favored by both renewable energy sources and the change in the geopolitical paradigm. It is a great opportunity, but it does not come automatically,” he explains. Natalia Collado, economist at EsadeEcPol specialized in energy and regulated markets. “There are other countries that have always taken better care of their industries and offered artificially low prices to large electricity-intensive consumers. Now that has been reversed, but we have to ensure that the industries we want are created: that they offer added value and innovation,” he explains.

Competitive advantage

Data centers and battery factories – such as Volkswagen's in Sagunto (Valencia) – have been the first sectors to set their sights on the Iberian Peninsula, largely because they are new and constantly growing industries, in which there are no relocation costs: it is not about closing a factory, but about opening new facilities.

However, if all goes according to plan, other sectors will soon prioritize Spain in their European plans. “They are just the first area where it can be seen that we have won the lottery. But it is only the prelude to what is to come,” he summarizes. Daniel Perezauthor of Renewable superpower (Arpa Editores, 2023). “We are witnessing, perhaps without realizing it, a structural change: from now on, Spain has a competitive advantage that it did not have before.”

This idea, which has already taken hold in some specialized environments, is not yet widespread. “We are still not seen as the European energy paradise that we are,” says Pérez, who demands a greater effort from the authorities to “sell” this idea abroad: “If we want to benefit from it, we need explanations , story and pedagogy. “Every investment attraction policy should have an image of a photovoltaic park on the cover.” Long-term industrial electricity contracts They are already 40% cheaper in Spain than in the rest of the EU.

“They mainly call us cement companies and data centers,” he says. Placido Ostos, from LevelTen Energy, one of the largest platforms for bilateral energy agreements in the world and therefore a very good thermometer of what is happening in the sector. “We shouldn't be too surprised by Amazon's recent announcement: what an electro-intensive industry looks at at most is the average price expectation [de la luz]. And Spain has solar, wind and orography conditions to manage water, allowing the country to continue to have cheap electricity. Sooner or later this will be noticeable in the investments.”

Prices… and geopolitics

The recent turn in the compass of electricity prices has been radical. Not just because of the current situation – with zero and even negative values – recurring, but because of the premise: just a few years ago, as Rystad Energy senior analyst Pratheeksha Ramdas recalls, Spain's electricity market was one of the most expensive on the Old Continent. With renewables covering two-thirds of demand, which is said to happen soon, Spain is competing with the Nordic countries to see who has the cheapest electricity. With the sun as a differential fact: the same photovoltaic installation generates twice as many hours on the Iberian Peninsula as in Germany.

This favorable situation is also favored by the change in geopolitical dynamics. The fury for free trade and cheap and indiscriminate imports in the 1990s and the first decade of this century has given way to a completely different reality, in which the major economic blocs are struggling to integrate more and more industrial production into their territory. at least, in those of friendly countries. “If, as the United States has already done, the EU really starts to give preference to the EU made in Europe“Spain could become one of the biggest beneficiaries of business relocations,” he predicts. Alejandro Labanda, director of Ecological Transition at consultancy firm BeBartlet. “The decisions of the new European Commission [la que salga de las urnas el 9 de junio] They will be crucial,” he warns.

Within these potential moves, Spain must – once again – know how to play its cards. “We have to show our qualities: that electricity here is not only cheap, but also renewable and not fossil. That, as more and more companies want to move to places with green energy and include it in their sustainability reports, is worth a lot,” he says. Gonzalo Escribano, principal investigator and director of the Elcano Royal Institute's Energy and Climate Change Program. With a reminder: “It is very good to enter the race to attract new industries, but we must also accelerate the decarbonization of the already existing industries: fertilizers, ceramics, refineries, cars…”. Only by electrifying industrial and domestic use (electric car, aerothermal energy…), Spain could in one fell swoop eliminate a huge amount of CO₂ emissions as well as billions of euros in oil and natural gas imports.

The network problem

However, there are several debts on the horizon. “Spain needs to invest more in the network and in storage technologies to prevent leakages and strengthen its interconnection capacity to become an energy exporter,” recalls Ramdas of Rystad Energy. A point, the latter, that depends not so much on Spain – which has been asking for reinforcement of the network cable for years – but on France which, despite the lifeline thrown out by Spain in 2022, controls most of its nuclear fleet. out of play.

However, the network is the major bottleneck of this new energy and industrial era. Although the sector has been asking for more attention on this point for years – partly self-interest, since an important part of the major electricity companies' activities rely on distribution – the buzz has already reached the decision-making centers.

That same Wednesday, the president of the government, Pedro Sánchez, stated that he was “very aware” of the fact that the electricity grid is unable to provide the power that industry needs. His words did not come out of nowhere: they responded to a parliamentary question from the PNV, the majority party in the Basque government, one of the most industrialized communities in Spain and where these problems have been felt for months.

Data centers or industry?

It makes sense that data centers will arrive first, no matter how you look at it. “A single 10 kilobyte email uses up to 0.074 microwatts of electricity, imagine how much artificial intelligence will need,” illustrated this week Energy intelligence analyst Amena Bakr. That is why Spain, in a European context, starts with several lengths ahead.

However, the investment boom in data centers – with the potential to create technological ecosystems around them – is encountering a somewhat uncomfortable reality: if there is no qualitative leap in the network, sooner or later certain sectors will have to be prioritized over others by granting access rights to the question. “Nowadays the scarce resource is the electricity grid. And given the choice between a data center and a manufacturing industry, I prefer a factory that produces more labor,” says Pérez, who concludes with a warning to the sailors: “It would be a shame to take over the electricity network with data centers, thus preventing the entry of other industries.”

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