Historian Allan Lichtman has accurately predicted the outcome of all but one U.S. presidential election since 1984.
Historian Allan Lichtman, widely dubbed the “Nostradamus” of US presidential elections, has predicted that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will defeat her Republican rival Donald Trump in November. The history professor at American University says his method avoids polls entirely and instead relies on a set of 13 true-or-false questions that are supposed to contain “keys” to the White House.
The presumptive Republican nominee was originally expected to run against incumbent President Joe Biden. However, after the veteran politician's lackluster performance during a televised debate in late June, Democrats replaced him with Vice President Harris as their running mate.
In an interview with The New York Times on Thursday, Lichtman said: “Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States – at least that's my prediction for the outcome of this race.” He explained that of the 13 so-called “keys,” eight favored the Democratic nominee. He argued that Harris benefited from the lack of a strong third-party candidate after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race last month. He also cited positive short- and long-term economic indicators, perceived legislative accomplishments enacted by the Biden administration, and a perceived lack of social unrest or scandals involving the White House as reasons for the Democratic nominee’s chances of winning.
Additionally, the fact that Harris didn't have to go through the party's nomination process because all the other candidates supported her is also a plus for the vice president, Lichtman said.
On Saturday, a prominent election forecaster appeared on Fox News Digital to confirm his prediction, saying that after “unprecedented” Biden's withdrawal from the race, “Democrats have finally gotten creative and united around Harris.”
Lichtman claims he has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of 10 presidential elections since 1984. The only time he failed was during the contentious 2000 contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore, the historian insists. That election was decided after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Bush's favor after weeks of legal wrangling over disputed ballots.
Meanwhile, another influential US election analyst, Nate Silver, said on Wednesday that Trump's chances of defeating Harris are better than at any time since the vice president entered the race in July.
His forecast stood in stark contrast to several polls conducted over the past few weeks, which have consistently shown Harris with a slight lead over Trump.