Ursula von der Leyen has had little public agenda in the past two weeks. He did not even travel to the NATO summit in Washington to concentrate on the negotiations to remain at the head of the European Commission for the next five years. The German knows what it is like to face a vote in the European Parliament: in 2019, her candidacy was successful with only nine votes, despite the fact that the groups that made up the agreement exceeded by a few dozen the half plus one that she needed to be elected. . On this occasion, the Popular, Socialist and Liberal parties reach 401 seats, but the margin of forty that she has over the 361 she needs cannot be taken for granted and von der Leyen has had to roll up his sleeves and wink to his left and to his right to try to square the circle.
The big problem the country faces is that agreements on one side of the parliamentary arch can upset the balance on the other. In the middle of the campaign, von der Leyen did not hesitate to assure her that she would seek the support of the far right to remain at the head of the community government, triggering criticism and warnings from her socialist and liberal allies, who reminded her that she could not count on them if she were to reach an agreement with those forces, among whom he named Giorgia Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia.
That has prompted von der Leyen to focus her negotiating efforts on the Greens, with whom she has met several times in recent weeks. But in a secret ballot, this approach could take its toll on the hardline wing of his party, which opposes the European Green Deal and prefers to join the Reformists and Conservatives (ECR) group.
At this point, von der Leyen, who met with the ECR on Tuesday, has promised the rest of the groups not to conclude a cooperation agreement, that is, not to conclude a formal pact with these formations in order to maintain the majority with the Socialists and Liberals and attract the Greens.
Although she has only formally met with the far-right group once – the European People’s Party maintains the cordon sanitaire with the other two ultra groups, including the new one that Vox has joined –, von der Leyen has done so in this process. One of the latter expressed this precisely during the meeting with the ECR, by confirming that the next community government will have a commissioner responsible for SMEs and “simplification of regulations” with the rank of vice-president, as published by La Stampa. Meloni, on the other hand, demanded a commissioner “for debureaucratization” last week.
Although in theory this is not the Commissioners' negotiating phase, as it corresponds to a later phase once the Presidency of the European Commission has been confirmed, it is a division that overshadows the negotiations in Strasbourg and may prompt some national delegations to cast their vote.
The European PP is taking advantage of the negotiations to get the card to break the agreement reached by the leaders and keep the presidency of the European Chamber for the entire mandate and not for half as agreed. What the popular parties are spreading is the hope of a more favourable balance of power in two and a half years – if they win in Germany or even in Spain for example – with the threat of dropping the President of the European Council, António Costa, to keep the presidency of the European Parliament.
The social democrats, in turn, are also pushing for their positions top candidateNicolas Schmit remains Commissioner. The social democratic commitment comes despite the fact that the Luxembourg government, which is responsible for submitting the proposal, does not have its colour – it consists of popular and liberals – but they argue that this could give more parliamentary stability to the community administrator.
And after Germany admits that it has no socialist commissioner because its president is German, the European Commission will have very few representatives from that country. family (Spain, Malta, Denmark and possibly Romania) after losing governments in recent years.
One of the points of contention in the negotiations between the New Popular Front that won the parliamentary elections in France and Emmanuel Macron is therefore the nomination of the future commissioner of that country. The intention of the President of the Republic, who is responsible for defining foreign policy, is that the liberal Therry Breton, responsible for the internal market, repeats this, but France Insoumise is fighting for the representative to abandon the left-wing candidacy.
Von der Leyen's calculator
Of the 401 MEPs who form the 'Von der Leyen majority' groups, around twenty have already announced that they will vote against. They are the French Les Républicains (6), who do not forgive her for being Macron's candidate five years ago, and the five Slovenians from the party of former Prime Minister Janez Janša, also from her political family. From the Social Democrats' side, only the Slovenian Matjaž Nemec has announced that he will vote against Von der Leyen, although in the case of a secret ballot it is assumed that there are more leaks. Many are looking to the Italian delegation of the Democratic Party, which disapproves of Meloni's German approach, and to the German from the SPD, while Von der Leyen, Angela Merkel's former defence minister, is from the CDU.
On the side of the liberals of Renew Europe, the Irish Fianna Fail (4) would distance itself from the voting discipline, together with two other Irish independents and a Portuguese. That leaves Von der Leyen with 482 votes, but the margin of 'dissent' with which they work in their team is 10%, which can be increased depending on alliances with other groups.
Among the additions that von der Leyen could make outside these three big families are some ECR members of the European Parliament, such as the three Czechs from the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), whose Prime Minister, Petr Fiala, has expressed his support. It also raises the question of what the Fratelli d'Italia will do, taking into account the winks that von der Leyen has made and the fact that Meloni abstained from voting in the European Council.
But the big breakthrough for the German could come from the Greens, who are primarily prepared to reach an agreement and be part of the new majority. However, the talks with the EPP have not been entirely easy and it is the chairman of the Social Democrats, Iratxe García, who has acted as a pivot. During the first test of legislative power, the Greens (or at least part of the group) supported the popular Roberta Metsola as President of the European Parliament. The Maltese obtained the largest majority in her elections in recent years with 562 votes. In return, the Romanian vegetable Nicolae Ștefănuță was elected as one of the vice-presidents with 347 votes.