The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party emerged victorious in elections held this Sunday in the eastern state of Thuringia. Björn Höcke, the most radical leader of the group classified as a right-wing extremist by the German domestic secret service, becoming the candidate with the most votes in the election. to land of just over two million inhabitants. Höcke won 32.9% of the vote, according to projections by the public broadcaster ARD at 10:30 p.m. In Saxony, the other state of the former East Germany that went to the polls, the ultras came in second, with 30.8% of the vote, behind the Christian Democrats of the CDU, who won by one point more (31.8% of the vote).
The far right celebrated a “historic” election victory. “We have become the strongest party in the state elections for the first time,” party co-chair Alice Weidel told ARD television. “Today's results are also a punishment for the government in Berlin,” she added. “This is a requiem for this coalition. And the coalition should ask itself whether it can continue to govern. At the latest with the Brandenburg elections.” [otro Estado del este alemán que renueva su parlamento el 22 de septiembre]New elections should also be considered.”
Saxony and Thuringia are two of Germany's smallest states. Together, they have just over five million inhabitants. But the far-right's strong showing in the east could trigger a political earthquake that would be felt in Berlin, where Olaf Scholz's coalition government of Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals is experiencing its worst moment of popularity. The executive is also weakened by constant internal struggles and is under intense pressure to take drastic measures on immigration policy after from the attack on Solingenin which a 26-year-old Syrian refugee allegedly stabbed three people to death and seriously injured five others.
The fact that the AfD is the party with the most votes does not mean that it can govern. In fact, it is unlikely that it will, due to the cordon sanitaire maintained by the rest of the political parties. Despite this, the victory of the ultras is a shock in a country that had managed to keep the extreme right reduced to minorities and that until now he had only touched power in the local sphere. For the first time since World War II, a far-right party will win the most seats in any of Germany's 16 state parliaments. Even if Höcke does not govern, his strength will allow him to block constitutional changes and even the appointment of judges.
“They shouldn't call us far-right”
Knowing what's happening outside means understanding what's going to happen inside, not missing anything.
The AfD leader in Thuringia claimed his right to govern in the interview he gave to public television in the regional parliament. Höcke, who on entering the set crossed paths with Bodo Ramelow, until now Minister President of Thuringia, from the left, became angry with the presenter, who immediately reminded him that his party is considered right-wing extremist. “We are the largest people's party in Thuringia. They should not call us extreme right-wing,” he said. The extreme leader declared himself “extremely happy and proud” of his voters. “This country needs change, and only the AfD can bring it,” he added.
The AfD has banned all press from its post-election party, which is taking place in an Italian restaurant in the Thuringian capital, near the regional parliament. The party has tried to prevent the entry of journalists it says do not treat it well, such as those from the weekly The SpiegelBut the media took legal action and won. Faced with the impossibility of choosing which editors it could invite, the party decided on Saturday evening to reject all of them and to close the premises completely, with the exception of its members and supporters. AfD leaders, including Höcke, often refer to the media as “lügenpresse” (lying press) and accuse them of being part of the “establishment” alongside the traditional parties.
The other winner
The other winner of the Thuringian elections was the party of Charismatic left-wing populist leader Sahra Wagenknechtwhich will be key to forming a government. Created just nine months ago following a split from Die Linke, the post-communist left-wing party, it won 15.6% of the vote. Much of that support comes from his former party, which lost more than 18 percentage points compared to the 2019 election.
In Saxony, Wagenknecht's party (BSW) won 11.9% of the vote. The percentage of votes translates into a larger number of MPs because several parties remained below the 5% threshold and did not obtain representation. The BSW's 15 seats in Thuringia and 16 in Saxony put this group in a privileged position to negotiate with the conservative CDU.
The BSW founder claims to participate in the government of Saxony. “We have great hopes of being able to form a good government with the CDU,” he told ARD television. Wagenknecht stressed that many voters chose them because “they are deeply moved by the question of peace and oppose the stationing of American medium-range missiles in Germany.” “The government of a federal state must take this desire of the people into account and campaign for it at the federal level,” he added.
All three government parties lose support
According to the projections, which in Germany usually deviate only by a few tenths from the final results, the three parties in Olaf Scholz's coalition are losing support compared to the previous elections. The liberals of the FDP did not reach the minimum of 5% to enter either parliament. The Greens did not reach this either in Thuringia (3.2%) and in Saxony they narrowly managed it (5.1%). The Social Democratic Party is holding out, but very weakened. In Thuringia, it obtained 6.1% while in Saxony the result is better, with 7.3%.
Scholz's SPD had just achieved its worst result in over a century in the European elections in June (13.9%), a humiliating result. third place after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has shaken the Chancellor's leadership considerably. Her coalition with the Greens and the Liberals only received 31% of the vote with a record turnout (64.8%) and left one question unanswered: will the government last until autumn 2025? The same question will most likely arise this Monday in the electoral hangover of these elections in East Germany.
Complicated situation
With the final results, which will be known at dawn, the parties represented in both parliaments begin the complex work of negotiating coalition governments. The situation is particularly complicated. The strength of the AfD, which concentrates almost a third of the votes, means that the remaining votes are not enough for the governments of the two countries. State.
André Brodocz, a political scientist at the University of Erfurt, explains: “Since the other parties refuse to ally with the AfD, the probability that it will be part of the government directly is very low. There is only a very small chance that Höcke will become prime minister if the other parties cannot agree on a coalition. It could then become accidentally “becoming the leader of a minority government, as Thomas Kemmerich did in 2020.” This refers to what happened in 2020, when the election of the liberal candidate with the votes of the AfD caused an earthquake that ended the career of Angela Merkel's successor, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, then chairwoman of the CDU.
The CDU appears best placed to lead coalition governments in both states. Christian Democrat Michael Kretschmer, Prime Minister of Saxony, has assured that he is “ready to continue to assume his responsibilities”. He currently governs with the Social Democrats and the Greens, an alliance that could be renewed, although a combination with the Greens and the BSW would also be possible. “A cooperation with the AfD is absolutely out of the question,” he stressed.
In Thuringia, CDU leader Mario Voigt stressed that his party is “the strongest in the political center” and that logic indicates that he should lead the next government coalition. In this case, the possible combinations are few. Without the Greens, who are outside the regional parliament, and given the cordon sanitaire imposed on the ultras, only an alliance of the CDU with the Social Democrats, Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW and Die Linke, has a majority.
The AfD burst into the German parliament after the September 2017 elections with 12.6%. Born in 2013 as a party opposed to Brussels bailouts and a supporter of Euroscepticism, it turned its slogans to the rejection of immigration during the refugee crisis of 2015. With the pandemic, he has refocused his populism against the restrictions, which he called undemocratic, and allied himself with Holocaust deniers and conspiracy theorists to oppose the government, first that of Angela Merkel and then the three-party government of Olaf Scholz.
Björn Höcke, considered the group's shadow leader, is the representative of its most radical, xenophobic and ultranationalist wing. The 52-year-old former high school history teacher has been the subject of controversy for years for his revisionist remarks, such as when he called the monument to Holocaust victims in central Berlin a “memorial of shame.” In recent months, he has been convicted twice for using a Nazi slogan (All for Germany) during his public appearances.
Follow all international news on Facebook And xor in our weekly newsletter.