The United States and China dominated the medal table Parisian gamesBut other countries – small or poor – have achieved spectacular successes. An extreme case this year was the island of Saint Lucia, with only 200,000 inhabitants, which won two medals with sprinter Julien Alfred.
How can we fairly measure Olympic merit? There are many nuances, but the main thing is to take into account the advantage given by two variables: being a country with a large population (because it serves to win the genetic lottery of sports talent) and being a country as rich as possible (to develop this talent).
The first graph shows the winners in total medals and also in medals per capita.
The chart shows the absolute winners, with the US (126 metals) and China (91) leading the way, followed by the UK (65), France (64), Australia (53) and Japan (45).
But the countries that are doing well are more interesting for their populations: Dominica, Grenada and St. Lucia have more than 10 medals per million inhabitants, between 20 and 40 times more than countries like Spain (0.4 per million) or the United States (0.4). Other high performers include Jamaica (2.1), Australia (2), Hungary (2), the Netherlands (1.9) and New Zealand (3.9).
Looking at this list, it is easy to notice another of the variables that predict sporting success: wealth. Countries with a higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita win more medals per capita, as the following graph shows. But by cross-referencing these two variables, we can find many exceptional countries, which perform better than their corresponding size and economic level.
The most extreme performance is that achieved by some Caribbean islands: Dominica, Grenada, Saint Lucia or Jamaica have many more medals than one would expect in middle-income or small countries. This is a pattern that has been repeated for decades. For example, Jamaica has won 83 medals since 2004, surpassing countries of similar size and income, such as Costa Rica (3 medals), Albania (2) or Lebanon (1).
Australia and New Zealand remain a success even after updating their GDP. It is also striking to note the amount of metals obtained by some former Soviet republics, such as Kyrgyzstan (all struggling), Georgia or Armenia. In Europe, the Netherlands also stands out, obtaining almost 2 medals per million inhabitants.
One caveat to this second graph is that countries with large populations are affected. It is difficult for them to win many medals per capita because they do not send as many athletes as their population corresponds to – otherwise one in three would be Chinese or Indian. For example, Ireland brought 125 athletes to Paris and Spain 336, while our population is almost 10 times larger. China? It brought 423 athletes, just 20% more than Spain, although its population is 30 times larger.
The advantage of being a host
It’s a cliché that’s true: when a country hosts the Games, it usually improves in the medals table. France went from 33 medals in Tokyo to 62 in Paris, confirming a rule that has few exceptions. Spain broke its record at Barcelona 1992, as did Australia at Sydney 2000, Greece at Athens 2004, China at Beijing 2008 and Japan at Tokyo 2020.
These data show the discreet result of Spain in these matches. It obtained 18 medals, or 1.7% of the total, which improves the figure of Tokyo (17 and 1.6%), but it is far from the 22 metals of 1992, which represented 2.7% of the total. There was no karate in Paris, where Spain won gold and silver four years ago. But in this edition there was another advantage: There were practically no Russian competitorswhich left about seventy 2020 medals “free”. This absence surely explains something seen in the previous graph: almost all countries have improved their metal count since the previous cycle.
Many studies have analyzed why the organization of the games helps to win medals. Factors such as the investment in sport and infrastructure before the competition, the advantage of competing at home, sending more athletes than usual or automatically qualifying for team sports.
Moreover, since the Tokyo 2020 Games, the International Olympic Committee has been inviting host countries to propose new sports. They are expected to choose disciplines that are popular in their country, where there are more chances to win and attract audiences to the events. Skateboarding, karate, sport climbing and windsurfing were introduced in Japan. Result? Japan won five medals in skateboarding, three in karate, two in climbing and two in surfing. In 2024, the novelty broke out, where France won one of the six available medals.
You can follow EL PAÍS Deportes in Facebook And xor sign up here to receive the Daily newsletter of the Paris Olympic Games.