Another unexpected plot twist in the most turbulent U.S. presidential campaign in recent history. Political scientists often refer to the “October Surprise” as an unforeseen event or revelation that occurs in the run-up to the election and can change the course of the campaign. This year, however, there have been surprises in June, July, August and September, many of them for the ages. The latest, the shooting at Donald Trump's golf club in Florida this Sunday, that authorities are investigating an attempted murder, and it has once again shocked an election campaign in which polls indicate a technical link between the Republican candidate and the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris. Republicans, who had mostly reacted with a message of unity after the first assassination attempt, are now launching into the business of holding Democrats accountable.
The campaign On June 27, he experienced the most important presidential debate in American political history. He revealed that President Joe Biden is too old to run for office. As the Democrat refuses to throw in the towel, Butler's (Pennsylvania) attack has arrived, in which a gunman fired from a rooftop at Trump as he gave a rally. One bullet hit him in the ear but could have killed him. Trump responded by raising his fist as a trail of blood ran down his face. The iconic image increased his lead in the polls.
The week after the attack, the Republican convention ratified a triumphant Trump as candidate and deified by his people in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, while Biden realized he was not able to compete. This brought about another historic turning point in the campaign. The president resigned for re-election and handed the baton to Kamala Harris, who quickly won the support of the entire party. In August, the Democratic convention crowned its presidential nominee, first candidate since 1968 who did not go through the primary system.
The excitement generated by the relay gave Harris a lead in popular vote polls, but the election It will depend on a few tens or hundreds of thousands of votes in a handful of decisive states. and there the swords are raised. The previous stage of the campaign, the debate between the two candidates Tuesday last week in Philadelphia, seems to have moved the needle relatively little on voting intentions, despite the fact that all serious polls showed the Democrat as the uncontested winner.
As Trump ruminated on his frustration, he declared himself the winner of the debate while blaming the moderators for losing it, including somewhat hilarious insinuations that the questions had been forwarded to Harris before—, he took a break in the countryside in Florida, where he usually resides. On this Sunday morning tweeted on Truth, his social network, “I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT” (in capital letters), who after the debate announced his support for Harris. Then he went to play golf, his favorite sport, at his club. That's when the incident happened.
Secret service agents, tasked with protecting the former president, They saw someone suspicious hiding in the bushes with a rifle while Trump was playing golf. Police opened fire. The suspect, later identified by authorities as Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, a man with a criminal record and an obsession with Ukraine, He got into his vehicle and fled, but was stopped at a roadblock. Officers found a semi-automatic rifle with a scope in the bushes around the premises.
Knowing what's happening outside means understanding what's going to happen inside, not missing anything.
Although Trump thanked the “absolutely exceptional” work authorities, the new attempt to attack him raises questions about the work of the secret services. The attack was prevented and the failures were not as obvious as in the Butler case, but the fact that a person with a sniper rifle could have been in the vicinity of the candidate once again calls into question the effectiveness of the protection.
Uncertain consequences
The political consequences of this second assassination attempt are highly uncertain. The first attack favored the former president in polling and prediction markets, which this time have barely budged. Compared to the Butler shooting in July, in which a bullet slightly injured him in the ear and the Secret Service had to evacuate him from the rally scene while the signal was being broadcast live, this second incident has not had the drama.
Trump emerged from the first attack as a hero. On that occasion, there was no image of the former president, who was playing golf. Nor is it clear to what extent he was in danger. Being the victim of an attempted attack generally increases citizens' empathy and solidarity with the person who was the target of the attack. On the other hand, Trump has embraced and defended certain episodes of political violence (such as the storming of the Capitol) and has been a divisive and polarizing figure in American politics.
On Monday, as he left the White House for an event in Philadelphia, Biden asked Congress to approve more resources for security. “One thing I want to make clear is that the Security Service [Secreto] needs more help. And I think Congress should respond to their needs,” he said, before adding, “Thank God the president is doing well,” referring to Trump.
Vice President Kamala Harris on Sunday condemned political violence and said she was “deeply troubled” by the attempted assassination of her rival at the Nov. 5 polls. “As we gather the facts, I will be clear: I condemn political violence.” “We must all do our part to ensure this incident does not lead to further violence,” Harris said in a statement. “As President Biden has said, our administration will ensure the Secret Service has all the resources, capabilities and protections it needs to carry out its critical mission,” he added. Harris tweeted that she was glad Trump was okay.
The Republican response was aggressive. “You are so full of shit. “Aren’t you glad I’m safe, it’s your rhetoric that caused this, AGAIN!!!!” Dan Scavino Jr., a prominent Trump campaign adviser, tweeted. Many other voices within the Republican Party have been heard blaming Democrats for the attempted attack. “The radical left has continued to label Republicans and Americans who simply want a safe and prosperous country as ‘threats to democracy.’ This irresponsible rhetoric hurts people,” tweeted Rep. Anna Paulina Luna of Florida.
“This rhetoric against President Trump, this narrative that he’s going to be the next dictator, that he’s going to be the next Hitler, has to stop. ‘Enough is enough,’” Florida Rep. Mike Waltz told Fox News on Sunday. “And when you hear this rhetoric coming from the left, from the media, and even from elected officials, that Trump needs to be stopped by any means necessary, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that these people are radicalizing and taking actions like this,” he added. Meanwhile, the world’s richest man, Trump ally Elon Musk, a frequent proponent of hoaxes, took to his social media account to wonder why no one is trying to assassinate Biden or Harris. He later deleted the post.