Venezuela's political conflict has accelerated in the past month to a level not seen since 2019. The holding of presidential elections on July 28 activated a chain reaction with multiple effects: Chavismo is faltering and has chosen to retreat in the face of the demands of the opposition, which is claiming the triumph of the Edmundo González Urrutia and demands that the government publish the electoral registers. The Bolivarian apparatus's objective is to corner its opponents, led by the disqualified María Corina Machado, and to play attrition as it has done on other occasions. However, the suspicions of serious irregularities during a day that, according to the authorities, ended with the victory of Nicolas Maduro have greatly shaken the foundations of Chavism. Venezuela is once again at the center of the international community's attention, the president and his hard core are increasingly isolated, while tension is increasing and fear of repression is spreading. In this climate, the opposition and the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) will mobilize this Wednesday in Caracas in two parallel marches.
Machado and González Urrutia have been sheltering in a safe place for weeks to avoid judicial or police reprisals. Their teams have been decimated by police arrests and harassment. The opposition candidate was summoned twice this week by the prosecution, who accuses him, among other crimes, of “conspiracy” for having published on a website the minutes that dismantle the official version and confirm his victory. The Chavista leaders are trying to corner the opposition sympathizers through legal and propaganda channels, to take away their visibility. That is why this Wednesday's call, announced a few days ago by Machado, has precisely this objective: to keep the pulse on the streets, as he has been doing for five years. There are similarities, but also substantial differences with what happened in 2019, when Juan Guaidó proclaimed himself interim president. First of all, in that case, elections were held and Maduro did not show the world proof of a victory.
The coordinates of the concentration are public despite the fears. It will be on Avenida Francisco de Miranda, at the eastern end of Caracas, at the gates of Petare, one of the most populated neighborhoods in Latin America. Already during the last march, the participants had expressed their concern about the controls and the militarization of the city. The deployment of the so-called “Bolivarian fury”, A social device for the defense of the revolution with which the PSUV activates its bases has also contributed in recent days to souring the atmosphere.
Chavismo, for its part, seeks to resolve the confrontation over the electoral results. For the first time, it has called on its people to “celebrate the triumph” instead of rejecting a coup attempt. That is, the slogan is to consider as acquired the victory announced by the National Electoral Council on the night of July 28 and which, a few weeks later, was validated by the Supreme Court, the highest judicial body in the country, controlled by the executive. However, Maduro refuses to present the minutes, despite growing pressure from the international community and mediation attempts promoted by left-wing presidents such as the Brazilian Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Colombian Gustavo Petro and the Mexican Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
On Monday, during the virtual summit of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA), Hugo Chavez's successor even emphasized a new electoral process, announcing that in 2025 there would be a “mega-election” for the National Assembly, governorships and mayors of the Caribbean country. However, he took advantage of the announcement to issue threats against those who question him. In other words, those who do not recognize and respect “the powers of the State” will not be able to participate in these elections. The functioning of these powers is precisely the central core of the conflict, since all the resources of public management and administration are in the hands of Chavismo.
The complaints of the principal rector of the CNE, Juan Carlos Delpino, who reported a “lack of transparency and truthfulness” in the vote, They provoked the sudden reaction of Diosdado Cabello, who demanded his dismissal and replacement. In practice, it is an announced suppression. But beyond the protest around the vote, it remains to be seen how the crisis will evolve in the coming months. The roads are still unpredictable and Maduro has just remodeled the government in an attempt to turn the page and ensure direct control over strategic sectors such as oil and the police force. However, the long-planned transition also opens up new scenarios.
Maduro is expected to officially take office in January 2025. There are more than four months left during which many factors can change. Until then, attempts at external mediation will continue. The consequences of the November elections in the United States, in which current Vice President Kamala Harris will face former President Donald Trump, are still unclear. But there is no indication that Chavismo is ready to give in. The latest signs show a willingness to redouble pressure on opponents and, at the same time, Maduro has refused to open himself to a possible dialogue. He even accused the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, of “pointing his guns and cannons” at Caracas. Borrell’s sin was to demand transparency, a word that, on July 28, became taboo in Chavismo’s power circles.
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