The crisis that broke out in Venezuela after the presidential elections has been stuck in the same place since July 28, when after a day of massive voting, the National Electoral Council (CNE), in the hands of the ruling party, proclaimed Nicolás Maduro the winner without, almost three weeks later, having provided the evidence that would confirm the victory. Added to the lack of evidence of Maduro's victory are complaints of fraud from the opposition, which has made public more than 80% of the minutes in its possession; the severe reports of the Carter Center, an observer authorized by Chavismo and the United Nations; and the attentive and cautious position of the international community, more focused on the lack of transparency of the elections than on imposing the winners. At the center of all this are the plans Brazil, Colombia and Mexico for the search for a negotiated solution, now promoted by Presidents Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Gustavo Petro to propose in unison the possibility of new elections or a transitional coalition government to lead to free and guaranteed elections. The idea, which was already circulating and from which Andrés Manuel López Obrador remained away, was criticized by both Chavismo and the opposition.
After insisting for nearly 20 days that the publication of the CNE minutes was essential, Lula and Petro on Thursday proposed the possibility of repeating the elections or attempting a coalition government. The presidents of Venezuela's two main neighbors are seeking to unblock the file and put pressure on Maduro, whom they have personally questioned. The Brazilian president was direct with the leader of Chavismo: “If (Maduro) has common sense, he could talk to the people about it, perhaps calling new elections with a non-partisan electoral committee,” he said in an interview on Thursday.
The Brazilian president still does not recognize Maduro as the winner of the vote and has I kept insisting on the need to publish the vote counts that have not been released. “Maduro knows that he owes the world an explanation,” Lula said. Within the international community, there seems to be a tacit consensus on the need to agree on a transition of power in Venezuela through a negotiation on which these first formulas are currently being launched. And this consensus is supported by another: the results with which Maduro flees to consolidate himself in a third presidential term – with which he would be in power for more years than Hugo Chavez himself – are not credible for a large part of the democratic countries.
The repeat of the elections, however, is a highly charged proposal. The idea, for now, has been rejected by Chavismo itself as well as by sectors that support the opposition. “The elections will not be repeated here because Nicolás Maduro won here,” responded Diosdado Cabello, political leader of the government party, the PSUV, to the proposal raised earlier by Lula's adviser for international affairs, Celso Amorim.
Maduro has shown no willingness to find a solution to the post-election conflict that has cast even more shadows on his legitimacy, so he has turned to the Supreme Court that he controls to try to validate his victory, although that court has not yet decided. Chavismo has also not shown any obvious cracks in its coalition, which is very well used in the armed forcesthus gaining time and taking advantage of this inertia to remain in power.
Without Maduro's will to find a way out of the conflict
The proposal put forward, especially by Brazil, of the possibility of new elections has not been well received by the opposition either, although it has expressed its willingness to negotiate. In any case, any dialogue, they insist, will be based on the results of July 28 that they have in their possession and that give victory to Edmundo González. The leader of the opposition, or of the democratic forces as she calls herself, María Corina Machado, also rejected the proposal to repeat the elections. “If we hold a second election and Maduro does not like the result, what to do, hold a third, then a fourth or a fifth? We went to the elections with the rules of tyranny despite the criticism of many and we won,” the leader replied.
The elections managed by a non-partisan organization also promise to be difficult, while the government has strongly condemned the reports of international observers from the Carter Center and the United Nations, invited by Chavismo itself. Those of July 28 were elections for which guarantees were also granted in the Barbados agreement with the opposition and the mediation of Norway, which Chavismo let die on paper. The possibility of a coalition government, about which President Gustavo Petro referred to the Colombian National Front, was also categorically excluded by Machado, due to the particularities of the Venezuelan context.
Until January 10, the date scheduled for the new government to take office, various formulas could appear, but what is not yet clear is the essential: Maduro's willingness to find a way out of the conflict. And on that date, the international community will have to adjust its positions. “If there is no willingness within the Maduro government to enter into serious negotiations to find a political solution, it is very possible that in the medium and long term Venezuela will find itself in a blind spot that we do not know how long it will take. This will be the case,” warns Mariano de Alba, a specialist in international relations and diplomacy.
Chavismo has already survived periods of diplomatic isolation that could be repeated if a solution is not found to the current crisis of legitimacy of its government, which, in the analyst's opinion, would not be greater than those experienced since 2019. “In this case, we are heading towards a semi-isolated government, with a very high cost for the population, in which the possibilities of economic recovery or maintaining the small rebound of last year are negligible,” says the analyst.
Follow all the news from El PAÍS América on Facebook And xor in our weekly newsletter.