On September 26, 2022, the waters of the Baltic Sea witnessed sabotage on a scale unprecedented since World War II. One of the Nord Stream lines, which transported natural gas directly from Russia to Western Europe without passing through Ukrainian territory, was destroyed. destroyed by explosives in an area of intense maritime traffic. Since then, various journalistic revelations have attempted to shed light, sometimes with opposing conclusions, on one of the most shocking events that followed Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Who blew up Nord Stream, according to the latest journalistic investigation?
THE exclusive published by The Wall Street Journal On Thursday, he pointed the finger at Ukraine and claimed that its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, had initially authorized the operation. Later, when the CIA found out and demanded that the operation be canceled, it tried to stop it, but failed. The sabotage idea was born one night in May 2022, six months before the explosions, at a drunken dinner where a group of senior Ukrainian military officials and businessmen were celebrating their country's success in stopping the Russian invasion, according to the statement. the American newspaper.
The plan was carried out by a small group of military and civilian divers; financed (at an approximate cost of €273,000) by businessmen and supervised by Ukrainian army officers (including Colonel Roman Chervinsky), according to the testimony of four direct sources who They participated in the operation or had direct knowledge of it.
What facts support this story?
The day before, on Wednesday, three German media outlets had published the first major step forward in the judicial investigation Facts: Last June, the German prosecutor's office issued an arrest warrant for one of the members of this team, a Ukrainian citizen who lived in Poland until his recent disappearance; he is said to have fled to Ukraine.
Knowing what's happening outside means understanding what's going to happen inside, not missing anything.
The identity of the man, a professional diver named Volodímir Z., has been confirmed, as have two other suspects, a Ukrainian couple who run a diving school. Polish authorities have confirmed that they have received the German request.
What do we know about how the attack was organized?
The silence of the German authorities – the only country that continues to investigate the events after Denmark and Sweden dropped their inquiries earlier this year – is total, but several journalistic investigations have revealed survey details.
For the sabotage, a team of six people with diving knowledge was created, including a woman, who facilitated the cover that it was a group of friends sailing in the Baltic. They set sail from Rostock on the northern coast of Germany on the sailing ship Andromedarented through a Polish travel agency and using false passports. The investigation allowed to reconstruct the approximate route and stops. They returned the ship in a hurry and did not clean it thoroughly, which allowed the German police to find traces of explosives and DNA samples.
Why did most experts first point the finger at Russia?
First of all because the attack is part of Russia's so-called hybrid war against the West through sabotage, disinformation and confusion. Due to the depth of the pipeline, which lies on the seabed more than 70 meters from the surface, experts also did not believe it was feasible that the operation could be carried out without state support, that is, without sophisticated military means.
Over time, it was shown that the amount of explosives needed was not as high as initially thought and it was proven that civilian submariners with deep-sea experience could access the area. A German media consortium hired a boat and a team of divers and reconstructed the scene of events for an award-winning documentary (Tatort Lake Ostsee; Crime scene (Baltic Sea).
Will we ever know exactly what happened?
Probably not. The judicial and police investigation is very limited. The only suspect against whom the German prosecutor's office issued an arrest warrant has disappeared and Ukraine does not extradite its nationals. Poland did not execute the order within the 60-day period provided for by European regulations. According to sources quoted by German media, “it seems that Warsaw was never really interested in solving this case.”
He South German newspaper revealed that recordings from the port of the Polish city of Kolobrzeg, where saboteurs docked with the Andromeda of September 19 and 20, had already been deleted at the request of German investigators.
Is a false flag operation ruled out?
No, and some media outlets still insist that this theory (an operation carried out with the aim of accusing a third party of responsibility) is still valid, even if the latest news makes it less credible.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly denied knowledge of or authorization of the operation. The first indications of alleged Ukrainian paternity were published in March 2023, based on the nationality of the submariners.
What consequences does this exclusivity have on aid to Ukraine?
If it is proven that kyiv ordered the destruction of the pipeline, the future of European support for Ukraine, both military and financial, could be called into question. Especially in the case of Germany, since the infrastructure belonged to it and it is the continental partner that contributes the most to the Ukrainian defense effort.
Berlin continues to support Ukraine against the aggressive power and assures that nothing has changed. Geert Wilders, the ultra-Dutch leader whose Party for Freedom (PVV) leads the new Dutch executive, asked three questions in Parliament raising the possibility of reviewing aid to kyiv if it is confirmed that he was the originator of the sabotage.
What impact will this have on the upcoming German regional elections?
The news that Zelensky himself initially authorized the operation will no doubt feature in election campaigns in the three former East German regions (Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg) that will hold elections in September. The WSJ exclusive favors the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, which reject arms shipments to Ukraine and advocate dropping sanctions on Russia. The AfD has gone so far as to call for rebuilding Nord Stream and reimporting Russian gas. The AfD is leading polls in all three regions.
Could Nord Stream work again?
The pipelines, which were about 70 meters deep, ran for 1,200 kilometers through the territorial waters of five countries: Russia, Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Germany. Nord Stream 1 was inaugurated in 2011 by then German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Nord Stream 2 was the newest and largest pipeline. Its construction was completed in 2021 and it had not yet entered into service: Berlin paralyzed it days before Russia launched the invasion from Ukraine. One of the Nord Stream 2 pipelines – each pipeline consists of two parallel pipes – is intact and could theoretically pump gas again.
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