Wisconsin's urban and rural voters, Las Vegas, Nevada service workers THE Latinos from Arizona, African-American communities in Georgia, Arab-Americans in Michigan, suburban women in Charlotte, North Carolina, and nearly all Pennsylvanians hold the keys to the White House. The people of the United States must elect a president on November 5, but the outcome will depend on tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of votes in a handful of key states.
In total, 158.6 million Americans went to the polls in 2020. Joe Biden won by more than seven million votes. However, That would have been enough for just 22,000 people in three states (Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin). They would have voted for Donald Trump instead of Biden so that the Republican would have remained in the White House.
With this precedent – and that of 2016, in which Trump wins Hillary Clinton in three states by 80,000 votes — having made the Democrats' victory in the popular vote in the country irrelevant — the campaigns of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are struggling to win votes in the seven states that will decide who will make history after November 5: the first woman to occupy the Oval Office or the first president to regain the presidency after losing it since Grover Cleveland in 1892.
The Electoral College is composed of 538 electors, delegates or delegates representing the states. Each has the equivalent of its number of congressmen (counting senators, always two per state; and representatives, from 1 to 52, depending on the population). In addition, there are three votes for the capital, the District of Columbia (DC). With minor exceptions, the candidate who wins in a state wins all of its electoral votes, whether he wins by one vote or by a million. The states with the greatest strength in the Electoral College are California (54), Texas (40), Florida (30) and New York (28). There are, however, several that have only three votes: Alaska, Wyoming, the two Dakotas, Delaware, Vermont and the aforementioned DC.
In many states, based on precedent and polls, there is no doubt who will win. Harris has nearly 226 Electoral College votes (181 certain; 44 probable; and one likely), while Trump can count on 219 (125 certain; 94 probable). You need 270 to win. The battle is in the other 93 states, spread across seven states that are home to about 15 percent of the population of 335 million.
The distribution leaves room for multiple combinations. The one with the most weight is Pennsylvania (19 votes), followed by Georgia (16) and North Carolina (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6). In 2016, Trump won everything except Nevada; in 2020, Biden won everything except North Carolina.
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The difference is so narrow in these territories that they switch sides with slight variations and can overturn the election. They are known as pendulum states. (Swing states). Trump would only need to retain North Carolina, in addition to reconquering Georgia and Pennsylvania, to win, which is why he is putting all his efforts into it. Their strategy is colliding in Pennsylvania with that of the Democrats, whom they have nicknamed the Blue wall in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, states that would be enough for Harris to win the presidency. There are three states that Obama won in 2008 and 2012; Trump, in 2016, and Biden, in 2020, are the only ones to have four consecutive elections in which the winner ends up in the White House.
Polls, bets and predictions vary as to who will win in key states. The margins are narrow, according to the surveys. FiveThirtyEight, which brings together the main, Harris is ahead in Wisconsin (2.8 points), Michigan (1.7 points), Pennsylvania (0.7), Nevada (0.2) and, most recently, also in North Carolina (0.2). On the other hand, Trump would be ahead in Arizona (0.7) and Georgia (0.6). The distances are very narrow.
Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, gives the Democrat a probability – in this case, not the intention to vote – of about 60% of victory in Wisconsin and Michigan, while giving the Republican victory in Georgia, Arizona and South Carolina also with nearly 60% to 40%. Nevada (irrelevant in this scenario) and Pennsylvania would be almost in the lead or the tail, which would tip the scales.
Metaculus, a community of experts, gives Harris a 64% chance of winning in Wisconsin, 60% in Michigan and 55% in Pennsylvania. Instead, he gives Trump a 60% chance of winning North Carolina and leaves Georgia, Arizona and Nevada up in the air, virtually tied.
While waiting for the elections, EL PAÍS will tour these decisive territories. The series begins in Pennsylvania, which has the most electoral weight and is included in a good part of the winning combinations. Winning it is a big step, but not definitive. Harris and – especially – Trump have several options to win without Pennsylvania.
In addition to the seven states, the series includes the Omaha district in Nebraska, which offers a Democratic-leaning but less assured vote. Its retention could prove decisive in avoiding a tie of 269 electoral votes. If that were the case – and there are several combinations – the president would be elected by the House of Representatives and the vice president by the Senate. Republicans Donald Trump and JD Vance would be the favorites.