If the US presidential race were a horse race, we'd say the odds are overwhelmingly in Kamala Harris' favor… to one.
For the first time after an unprecedented election campaign lasting months, with a change of candidate and two assassination attempts, the prestigious election polling site FiveThirtyEight “gives color”.
He gave the Democratic candidate a 60 percent chance of winning the election on Tuesday, November 5.
By contrast, Trump's chance of winning the Electoral College dropped to just 39%.
As posted by yesterday The New York TimesTrump and Harris tied nationally.
But new polls suggest that the impact of Kamala Harris' victory in the Sept. 10 presidential debate has begun to take hold in the most pivotal states.
While the Democratic nominee was unanimously declared the winner, Trump received negative comments for repeating false and untrue comments about Haitian immigrants eating dogs and cats in Springfield, Ohio.
The trend in favor of Harris is similar in most of the most reliable American opinion polls.
In Pennsylvania, the poll New York Times Kamala's voting intention is 50 percent, while Trump's is 46 percent, which is above the margin of error.
According to a Quinnipiac University poll, the Democratic nominee has an even bigger lead, 51% to 45% for Trump in the same state.
Kamala Harris slightly leads Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, which together with Pennsylvania formed the so-called blue wall, i.e. the three pillars of the Midwestern states that gave Joe Biden victory in 2020.
But even more telling is the fact that Harris tends to solidify her leadership position among white women, with and without college degrees. This is a bigger problem for Trump, as the women's vote in these states could be decisive.
One factor that may explain the increase in women's willingness to vote for Harris was his clear stance on protecting women's reproductive rights in the presidential debate.
The Democratic nominee has also begun to steal Trump's support among college-educated white men.
In other words, the election is only seven weeks away, and Trump's only solid pillar remains male, white, low-educated, low-income support, especially in rural areas.
Another base for Trump has appeared, unique and unexpected, albeit smaller: it is African-American men, which according to surveys can be explained by the fact that in the Trump era, unemployment was lower and their salaries were better than during the Biden era.
Working in Harris's favor is the fact that in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, college-educated white women represent voters at a higher rate than non-college-educated white men and black men.
The peculiarity of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin is that they are very similar economically, demographically and culturally, so they have always voted for the same party in the last 80 years, except for one occasion.
If Harris maintains that lead over the next seven weeks, he can be assured of defeating Donald Trump by 270 electoral votes.
Even if the former Republican president were to win North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada, he would still fall short because he would need at least one of those three key states.
Despite the trends, most politicians and political scientists agree that this will be one of the closest elections in US history.
More or less in the style of the legendary 1960 Kennedy-Nixon battle, where the difference in votes was 0.17%.
Although, of course, with this narrow margin, Trump would not admit defeat like Nixon.
(This column was prepared with support and information from José López Zamorano, Washington correspondent for EL FINANCIERO.)