The Mexican economy maintains a semi-slow rhythm growth approaching the latter part of the year, a situation which has modified downwards the GDP expectations and allows you to see the inertia with which 2025 begins.
Estimates a INEGI point out that the the national economy expanded by 1.1 percent annually in both Julys similarly to August, according to seasonally adjusted data Timely indicator of economic activity (IOAE).
This is it predictions would keep up growth observed in June, also 1.1 percent per year, according to Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) and this would denote a deceleration from 1.5 percent in May.
According to economic sector a secondary activities connected to the building industry y productionAn annual increase of 0.7 percent is expected, especially in August, from 0.6 percent in July.
If the August data is confirmed, a industry it would link five months of annual growth below 1.0 percent 28 months with this streakindicated by INEGI.
Meanwhile, the tertiary activities that group is a services y the trade By August, annual growth of 1.5 percent is forecast, which accelerates from 1.3 percent in July.
Towards the end of this year the economy is moving towards less dynamism to close the current federal government and his entry commencing in October next; there is also internal political uncertainty which prompts investors to approach their projects with caution.
At a monthly rate of The IOAE rose 0.1 percent in July and is expected to advance 0.3 percent in August, the data seem to be somewhat better stagnation from 0.0 percent in June.
THE industry in August, it would show a monthly increase of 0.3 percent from 0.2 percent in July, while the services In August, they would receive a monthly advance of 0.4 percent to reverse a possible fall of 0.1 percent in July.
“Assuming it's in September is the IOAE shows the monthly increase 0 percent, in the third quarter a GDP growth would be nearly 0.57 percent per quarter, in line with the annual growth Cumulative growth of 0.77 percent and 1.17 percent in the first three quarters of the year,” he indicated. Basic bank.
At a slower pace
With these data, the outlook for the end of the year looks brighter. weakness under the influence of various factors: the helplessness shown so far, a change of governmentin addition to being internal political uncertainty which leads to that investors be careful with your projects that add a presidential election in United States in which there is no clear favorite.
With the data a IOAE, Basic bank expects that in the third quarter a GDP growth It would be 0.8 percent annually, and the accumulated growth for the third quarter of the year would be around 1.2 percent.
Lake Intercomthe figures are also a GDP growth 0.8 percent in the third quarter, which is a significantly low figure, which remains the deceleration.
Alejandra Marcos, Director of Analysis and Strategy at Intercam Casa de Bolsa, indicated that the interior part is striking that consumptionwhich was the engine of dynamism, shrank by 0.6 percent in the second quarter and investment shows atonia.
“These data, together with the IOAE, indicate that in the second half of the year economy it will show much less dynamism than we observed; the economy is in phase deceleration and the big question: And 2025? I think what's coming doesn't necessarily show bigger dynamismMarcos said Bloomberg Financial.
In the procession economyValmex expects that a residential consumption may still show weakness in the economic slowdown and the inflationas well as the investmentwhich may lose more dynamism given the conclusion a federal government civil works.
“Furthermore, it is possible that the export in the expectation of a minor dynamism the United States economywhich is caused by the delayed effect monetary restrictionValmex analysts indicated.
Launch in 2025
HE Octavio Dorantes, professor of economics at UNAM, emphasized reduces growth expectations of the Mexican economythus, the beginning of the new six-year cycle faces a great challenge.
He said, however, that one factor that a consumption shows flexibility will be a state financial supportin addition, a moderation a inflationand therefore a interest rates in order to help the economic activity.
The loss of dynamism is a constant phenomenon during changes of government. In the fourth quarter of 2018, when it was transition for this six-year period, GDP It rose by 1.2 percent on an annual basis, then shrank by 0.1 percent at the beginning of 2019.
Monex According to their estimate, after a growth 1.65 percent in 2024, the first quarter of next year will start with an annual advance of 0.92 percent.